An even better indicator than all of these polls is the historical record. The party out of power usually picks up seats in midterm elections. This is ESPECIALLY pronounced in the sixth year of an incumbent administration. Consider the following:
In 1958, the sixth year of the Eisenhower Administration, the Democrats scored a huge gain in the midterm election that year.
In 1966, the sixth year of the JFK-LBJ Administration, the GOP scored a huge gain in the midterm election that year.
In 1974, the sixth year of the Nixon-Ford Administration, the Democrats scored a huge gain in the midterm election that year.
In 1986, the sixth year of the RR Administration, the Democrats scored a huge victory in the midterm election that year.
In 1998, the sixth year of the Clinton Administration, the GOP did not score such a big victory that year. They scored their enormous gain in the 1994 midterm election and kept their congressional majority for the remainder of the entire Clinton Administration.
In 2006, the sixth year of the GWB Administration, the Democrats scored a huge victory in the midterm election that year.
Polls fluctuate back and forth, but historic patterns remain relatively constant and they do not favor the Dems this year.
The general pattern there is the incumbent party messes things up and the challenger says they will fix it and gets elected. Then they mess things up more and the former incumbent party says they will fix it and gets elected. Then they mess it up worse and the former incumbent party says they will fix it...ad nauseum, until we are all nauseous.