Posted on 10/17/2014 3:57:05 PM PDT by blam
Shane Ferro
October 17, 2014
Multiplication — that's what people don't understand about Ebola, according to Nassim Taleb, the author of "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan."
More specifically, Taleb explained to Business Insider that many people talking about the disease don't "have a grasp of the severity of the multiplicative process."
The argument that the US should be more worried about a disease like cancer — which has more stable rates of infection than Ebola does currently — is a logic that Taleb calls "the empiricism of the idiots."
The basic idea: The growth rate of Ebola infection is nonlinear, so the number of people catching it doubles every 20 days. Because of this, you have to act quickly at the source of infections, he says. "The closer you are to the source, the more effective you are at slowing it down ... it is much more rational to prevent it now than later."
The problem Taleb sees is that if there is not more urgent action in Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea — to the point of restricting travel and other measures that may now seem like an overreaction — then there will be consequences here.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at businessinsider.com ...
I’m still trying to figure out how to start an avalanche with a match. I’ll never be able to figure out the rest of it.
You are assuming that some have comprehension. Remember, over 50% of the US population supposedly voted for Obama, twice. Logic and truth escaped them completely not once but twice.
Worse yet many of them say that, given the same choice, they would do it again.
I probably should have used another comma.
I was in Amway years ago, which is where I learned about the power of a penny doubling every day for 30 days.
Bump
Therein is the explanation for the otherwise inexplicable.
If we can restrict flight, why not seal the border?
If it makes sense to stop the entry of foreigners via standard, regulated air travel, why does it not make even MORE sense the end unregulated migration of an entire population across the land border...especially when they are carrying disease that is killing Americans?
This is Obama's and the Democrats Firewall of the Immigration/Border issue.
They know if the political pressure drives a restriction of air traffic, they'll lose on the issue of Mexican migration.
So they are not going to let it happen.
At least until Democrats side with Republicans and demand it.
-——Remember the SARS outbreak?——
Does SARS have a 21 day incubation period like Ebola...?
Apples and oranges...
I didn't know you could start an avalanche with a comma either.
Just bet one of these total idiot "PC" liberals that they can't fold a piece of paper 8 times...
And win lots of bets!
A few thousand ebola deaths in the U.S. ought to clinch the inevitable.
Doubt it; seriously.
Remember, most of the public bought into the manipulated computer-generated global warming scam. Science and math ignorance borders on stupidity, when applied to human judgment,behavior, and tendency to lie, and "fake it," to survive.
Nothing has changed in the last 35 years!
"Been to West Africa lately?"
"Hell no!!"
From the atricle:
“.... The argument that the US should be more worried about a disease like cancer —which has more stable rates of infection than Ebola does currently.....”
Hmmm, they are saying cancer is like an infection???!!!???
How credible is this source????
And how much has 0bola allocated to combatting Ebola?
0.
Nuff said.
“....And having the new czar report to Susan Rice? She’s been responsibility for the death of way too many people already. ...”
Maybe that’s the idea... have a lot of people die. :0
Some cancers are caused by infectious agents. E.g., HPV (ask Rick Perry).
“.... EbolaResponse is,in effect,a Markov chain model and is similar to an Ebola model built in 2004 (1).” ....”
They modelled it ten years ago.... and how does their models fit what is happening now?
I kinda think this is starting to get irrational too. But if it knocks several dems from office, let it be.
Only has to double 19 times to reach a million.
Yeah, but it would be 20 times if you didn’t get to skip 512 . . .
What happens when (not if, at the current rate) the question has to be, “Been to Cleveland lately?
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