Posted on 10/17/2014 10:53:33 AM PDT by Parmenio
Millions of dollars have been spent by the candidates and outside political groups in Minnesota's 8th Congressional District and now we know why.
In our exclusive new KSTP/SurveyUSA poll, Republican challenger Stewart Mills leads incumbent Democrat Congressman Rick Nolan 47 percent to 39 percent. Another four percent support Green Party candidate Ray Sandman and 11 percent are undecided.
"This is a shocking poll and may suggest we have Oberstar all over again," said University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs, referring to longtime Democratic incumbent Jim Oberstar's loss to Chip Cravaack in 2010. "Clearly Mills is benefiting from a fundamental change in the 8th District that is trending in the Republicans' direction."
Jacobs says the 8th District is changing as the population shifts from the more liberal Iron Range part of the district to more conservative northern suburbs of the Twin Cities. Recent re-districting also moved some voters from the conservative 6th District represented by Michele Bachmann to the 8th.
Our poll shows Nolan's job performance approval rating is only 38 percent. Jacobs says that might be due to his support for "Obamacare" and for what some see as shifting stands on the Polymet mine project. "Whether it's Polymet or Obamacare these are issues that voters care about and they're decisively breaking against Congressman Nolan," Jacobs notes.
The poll shows 56 percent of 8th District "likely voters" disapprove of the "Affordable Care Act," also known as "Obamacare." Meanwhile, 55 percent say the Polymet mine should get government approval. Voters who disapprove of "Obamacare" and favor the Polymet mine overwhelmingly support Mills.
Mills also has a decided advantage among independents, leading Nolan 58 percent to 29 percent. Mills retains 81 percent of GOP voters while Nolan has 78 percent support among Democrats.
Our poll of 555 "likely voters" was conducted between Oct. 9 and 12. The sampling includes 34 percent Democrats, 29 percent Republicans and 31 percent independents. By comparison, the Cook Political Report's "Partisan Voting Index" rates the Minnesota 8th District as a +1 in favor of Democrats.
The margin of error in our poll is +/-4.2 percent. That means Mills could be as high as 51 percent or as low as 43 percent. Nolan could be as high as 43 percent or as low as 35 percent.
In 2012, Nolan beat Cravaack by nine points, 54 percent to 45 percent. In 2010, Cravaack beat Oberstar 48 percent to 47 percent with two other candidates taking five percent. President Obama beat Mitt Romney in the 8th District by six points in 2012.
Let’s hope so.
It’s really beginning to look like Obama’s just going to have to do something to halt these very inconvenient midterm elections.
/s < maybe >
Good news.
But what about the US Senate race?
Any chance of getting rid of Franken(stein)?
Well nobody saw the Ventura election coming so I guess you never know.
The last 10 days have shown a LOT of people just how incompetent these Democrats really are.
This isn’t something the Daily Show and Colbert can just mock away, though they are trying damn hard to.
This is people’s kids at REAL RISK OF DYING a horrible death. This election now has personal consequences for these people. A mother sending her kid to school now has to consider this.
That is the worst thing ever possible for a Dem.
This could be a lot more than a blow-out.
Mills is unrelentingly tagging Nolan as saying that Obamacare did not go far enough. Nolan is sticking to the tried and true politics of envy against Mills. Mills could have gained another point or two if he had dumped the ridiculous Ivy League prep look haircut.
If I am remembering correctly, this district probably isn’t a bell-weather, in that the win in 2010 should have placed it permanently in the Republican fold, but shortly after the election the new Rep. effectively moved to New Hampshire, and then attempted to run for re-election from there. I’m not sure how he made it out of the primary, but given that baggage, a loss would be expected, but the Dem can’t always expect to be running against such an incompetent Pub.
The 8th CD was also redistricted, with the addition of more conservative voters in the northern ex-urbs of the Twin Cities. In addition, the libs in the metro area are on a crusade to stop the opening of the Polymet copper-nickel mine. This has completely alienated the union mineworkers on the Iron Range. If Mills does a halfway decent job in office, the district could be in the Republican column for some time to come
“University of Minnesota political scientist Larry Jacobs”
Larry carries the water for the DFL in MN.
Comeback Watergate Baby Nolan headed for defeat in MN...
Sweet.
Its out of the way races like this story which makes me smile.
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