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To: Zhang Fei

Do you think we’re in for several years of $80 (or lower) oil?

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Without try to sound like a jerk, if I could predict the price of oil, I wouldn’t work for a living. I learned a long time ago understanding the oil/gas industry is not equal to understanding all the influences in a volatile commodities market.

Too much outside the industry impacts prices: wars, regulations, taxes and subsidies of other technologies, etc.

I try to avoid price predictions.

Lower oil prices will result in less investment for growth. $80/bbl will lead to slower growth, but still some US shale growth, IMHO. Some smaller independents at that price will be selling assets with future production to cover their overly large debt. Major producers will slow, maybe stop buying in shale; or if they believe that prices will be back near $100/bbl in a few years, they may buy in like crazy at bargain prices.


10 posted on 10/17/2014 6:06:34 AM PDT by thackney (life is fragile, handle with prayer.)
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To: thackney
Without try to sound like a jerk, if I could predict the price of oil, I wouldn’t work for a living. I learned a long time ago understanding the oil/gas industry is not equal to understanding all the influences in a volatile commodities market.

As a market watcher, I like to read the takes of educated observers in the industry. It may not be a bottom up exercise involving guesstimates of demand curves vs supply curves, but it's still valuable because ultimately you have to decide whose judgment you trust, and make your decisions on that basis.

11 posted on 10/17/2014 6:18:07 AM PDT by Zhang Fei (Let us pray that peace be now restored to the world and that God will preserve it always.)
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