Posted on 10/14/2014 8:09:28 AM PDT by Tired of Taxes
Johns Hopkins was at the forefront of the Avian Influenza research almost a hundred years ago. They doggedly chased the virus during the 1918-1922 epidemic until it was discovered that it was a virus. Their research led to the discovery of DNA. This physician is the first epidemiologist that has stated what I believe and feel in contrast to what the CDC and the government is stating.
So, based on your watching this and getting a feel for the tone, do you think they are expecting a devastating 1918 Flu type of event with 10’s of millions dying? Feeling a bit anxious here ...
They feel like it is:
1. Out of control
2. HCW’s are contracting and dying of the disease even though they are both equipped and trained on how to avoid infectious diseases.
3. They know the numbers on new cases and dead are flat wrong.
4. They know (CIDRAP knows, that is the ‘they’ in this case) that the USG/WHO has lost all public credibility on the subject of this disease.
5. The press backed the wrong horse. This means that in addition to the USG/WHO losing credibility on the topic, SO DID THE PRESS.
6. The US public health infrastructure has no confidence it can combat this disease, according to CIDRAP.
7. They are sure that they don’t know what they need to know about this type of Ebola, and what they know about other types of Ebola are holding them back.
As such, the disease is spreading exponentially, and there is debate about the value of the exponent. The best guess is that the basic reproductive number is about 2 at this point.
What I think happened today at Hopkins, and why I believe the WAPO journo was on the panel, is that CIDRAP is going to step into the leadership vacuum for this disease - at least from the standpoint of public information. They don’t control budgets or infrastructure, but if they win the hearts and minds of the public health worker community, then they figure they can dictate where the response and the resources will end up both near term and long term.
On balance, if my above stated impression of what happened at Hopkins today is even close to accurate, then I think actual doctors will start dictating the direction of public health policy soon.
I’m going to include Laz on this response because his sources are better in some respects than others on the forum. (along with black agnes, smokin’ joe, and scouter)
What it felt like was the commentary you get on a Sunday NFL broadcast from people who know the game at the end of the 1st quarter - the home team is behind by several touchdowns and the reigning champs have not put any points on the board. The team mentioned during the forum playing other games against this opponent (Cuba) has the only effective ground game so far, and they haven’t scored any points either.
It was an overall reset - an assessment of where the response effort is at the current time. No mention was made of Dr. Gorbee Logan’s clinic in rural Liberia, etc. The one bright spot they did bring up - Nigeria - they chalked up to dumb luck. No specific vaccines, serums, or drug therapies where mentioned.
Ebola is faster on the ground than the defense. Nobody is sure whether Ebola has a passing attack, even though dozens, perhaps hundreds of cornerbacks are out of the game (permanently).
The people on the field are starting to question the coaching - ‘why send troops when what we need is doctors and nurses - especially to Liberia which is a staunch ally?’
To sum up, however, all of this truth-telling was a FIRST for this crisis. It was a spleen-venting, and the thing that knowledgeable people do before saying, “And while all of that bad and stupid stuff happened, here’s what we are going to do now . . .”
If CIDRAP follows this up with, “Here’s what needs to happen now, and how it needs to happen, so that WHO/CDC/NIH doesn’t have to hurt themselves figuring it out:” then even more good will come from it.
I didn't notice if they said how long it takes. :-(
Bump
FYI - This thread wasn't started until the Johns Hopkins forum was halfway over.
Part 1 of the forum gave much more information.
Of particular interest might be "Ebola modeling" which starts around 01:38 in Part 1. That's when a potential epidemic is talked about.
For those of us who missed Part 1, the recorded version is available now here: http://www.jhsph.edu/events/2014/ebola-forum/webcast.html
It seems that some of you might've watched both Part 1 and 2, or maybe you're just very knowledgeable on this topic. To you, thank you for posting the additional information you've posted for the rest of us!
Thank you for the ping and the rundown.
I’m encouraged that now maybe they’ll quit tiptoeing around it all a d tell us the truth for once
bkmk
Thanks for the ping!
I hope so, too.
You’re Welcome, Alamo-Girl!
I watched a good bit of this. Very interesting and very sad response by our government.
I agree. I just hope and pray that it’s not too late to somehow stop the spread or at least slow it down.
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