[Hieronymus]

Justin’s main problem is the Liberal brand and his father - are both loathed in Quebec and Western Canada and no party can win a Commons majority today without being competitive in both regions.

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You haven’t been paying attention to things in Quebec recently. The Bloc’s support is down with the PC’s, which means that the liberals are poised to win a ton of seats unless the NDP really cleans up. MB, SK, AB, and the BC interior may be an obstacle, but not an insurmountable one on the road to a majority. In the very least, he is well-poised for a minority government, which still counts as being in power.

[goldstategop]

At present the NDP holds the majority of seats in Quebec.

Next year’s election will be decided by Ontario - the classic Canadian swing province will have 121 seats in the House Of Commons.

Conservatives have a majority there now and they can expect to make significant gains in fast growing British Columbia and Alberta.

The Liberals have only 39 seats so the road to a strong minority government means the NDP has to fall off its current all-time high.

Odds are better for Canada’s first federal NDP government than it would be for a Liberal return to power.

[llevrok]

MB, SK, AB, and the BC interior may be an obstacle

Lots of land area/few relative votes.

You may be right that the PQ/ON/Vancouver voter mass will give at "best" a minority government or at worst, some coalition one.

[Praxeologue]

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/canada.html