Posted on 10/09/2014 5:22:36 AM PDT by TurboZamboni
WASHINGTON (AP) — Just how healthy is the U.S. job market?
Despite steady hiring and falling unemployment, the question has provoked sharp debate and considerable uncertainty on the eve of the September jobs report.
Will millions without jobs who aren't looking for one eventually start looking?
Why aren't companies filling more of their openings?
Why can many people find only part-time work?
Much of the uncertainty flows from a big question: Does today's 6.1 percent unemployment rate, far below the 10 percent it hit in 2009, mean the job market is near full health? Or does the unemployment rate overstate the improvement?
The answers, whenever they come, could play a key role in when the Federal Reserve decides to finally raise interest rates.
(Excerpt) Read more at twincities.com ...
Very soon, asking these types of questions will land you in a re-education camp. When those fill up, another SRM (sudden removal mechanism) will be implemented.
SRM = Final solution
If you have to ask...not good.
Despite steady hiring and falling unemployment...
Just a moment, make that "Despite reported steady hiring..." because out in the real world, away from the screens, I don't see hiring and falling unemployment.
Will millions without jobs who aren't looking for one eventually start looking?
Some will, some won't. Some may decide living off the State's largess with my money is good enough.
Why aren't companies filling more of their openings?
I'm guessing here but I'd say there are two factors. One, for the few positions they have that require specialized skills/education they can afford to be picky and wait for just the right person, it's a buyers market. Two, for the relatively unskilled positions I do see turnover. There's always an opening or two because of so much churn.
Why can many people find only part-time work?
Oh that's the easiest one of them all: obamacare baby! Thanks to obamacare, brought to you by, well, obama and the Democrats (remember, not one GOP vote?) it is very much in a company's best interest financially to favor several part time workers over one or two full time workers.
Much of the uncertainty flows from a big question: Does today's 6.1 percent unemployment rate, far below the 10 percent it hit in 2009, mean the job market is near full health? Or does the unemployment rate overstate the improvement?
That number is pure fantasy. Driven my statistical hijinks to try to make things look better than they are. It no longer has any correlation to the real state of affairs.
Will millions without jobs who aren’t looking for one eventually start looking?
No, they are now too comfortable with food stamps, Obamaphones and SSI.
Why aren’t companies filling more of their openings?
Obamacare
Why can many people find only part-time work?
Obamacare
BTW, I really miss that show and Robert Stack.
A flatout lie by democrats, carried on by fellow lying democrats in the press, like this joker.
Repeal EVERY single state and federal law that relates to employees, and you will see the largest hiring binge in history.
That was a good series and I always liked Robert Stack.
There was a short lived 80s series called Strike Force he was in that I enjoyed. Untouchables is another favorite.
There are millions of unemployed who are not being counted as unemployed?
And then we're mystified?
Overstate it? No, they flat-out LIE about it! It's a lot closer to 15% than it is to six.
I thought the U.S. unemployment rate was dpwn to 5.9%. It’s been said that the oil futures market “bubble” is set to collapse & the dollar has strengthened. People who say this are presuming it to be a calamity for the future, but falling oil price & stronger dollar might be a sign that the economy can finally get real footing & make a real recovery in consumer confidence, spending & jobs....and incomes....which might also give us a real housing recovery....but one where the Fed under dove Yellen really doesn’t have to tightened for a few more years. Taxes are lower than any period in memory except for 2003-2009, but the Fed tightened and applied the so-called “brakes” on the economy from 2004-2006 by raising the Fed funds rate from 1% to 5.25%. Hitting the brakes when the housing market is going full speed causes crashes and pile-ups and competition is the cooling system of a free market economy, not the brakes.
The Democrats believe that the way to stop bigger and bigger car crashes is to keep the economy going 15 mph...that bigger tax cuts for the “rich” that cause faster growth and drive down the unemployment rate fast means that the Fed raises rates higher and sooner and causes bigger crashes—and de-regulation/speculation enables rich people to ruin markets for the average person. GOP really has no comeback for Democrat criticism and Romney calling for a top marginal tax rate of 25% and a zero percent capital gains tax rate really hurt his chances to win the election and frightened the hell out of independent voters in states he needed to win, along with his implicit promises to cut jobs in the public sector in states such as Virginia.
The economy and stock market did well from 1988 to 1998, when the capital gains tax rate was 28%, but the Nasdaq really exploded in 1998 when Greenspan cut interest rates in response to a balanced budget and falling gas prices as the dollar strengthened. But when Greenspan raised interest rates to 6.5% in 2000, the Nasdaq crashed. Greenspan was trying to keep gas prices down—as they were headed towards $1.50 during the fast growth and sub 5% unemployment rate.......after having falling below $1 in 1998.
Gas prices was $1.11 in 1981 and $1.04 in 1989, $1.07 in 1993, $1.29 in 2001 and $1.85 early in 2009.
If you look at the recent recession, the economy crashed in two parts—once in 2008 when gas price spiked because of monetary and fiscal stimulus.....then the recession ended earlier than predicted when gas price fell by early 2009....then the economy crashed again late 2009-into 2010 when Fed and fiscal stimulus both again caused gas price at the pump to double to $4 and kill consumer confidence and spending, making mortgage payments difficult for people on the margins and new home buying impossible at inflated prices. Money fled the country into foreign markets and currencies and into gold and oil futures, killing both the supply side and demand side of the economy.
Unemployment rose from 5% to 7.5% then from 7.5% to 10% because of the two oil shocks in 2008 and in 2009. The spread between producer price inflation and consumer price inflation was huge and is the reason why job hiring ground to a halt and why layoffs happened and were permanent. The reverse seems to be happening now....
When is GOP going to learn that the Fed Reserve dual mandate law created under Jimmy Carter is a major reason why “Reaganomics” gets blamed for bad things during the past 30 years, where prices go up over time, but wages don’t keep up.?
Greenspan killed a great economy in 2000, believing he was just slowing it to 3% growth from 5%, when it was just unrealistic to think he could keep gas prices down during such low unemployment and he starved the economy of money needed for it to grow.
GOP pushing the “Austrian school” of economics basically is committing political suicide by bolstering Democrat claims that it’s not the Fed’s fault, but that it’s the GOP’s fault and that every economy in the past 30 years was just smoke and mirrors inflationary “bubble”. If tea partiers keep saying that we only had monetary “bubbles” under Reagan, Clinton and Bush—how will that make GOP less scary and more popular again when they call for cutting government jobs, more tax cuts at the top and on investments , combined with tighter monetary policy even than Greenspan ?
Hiring someone is a like a bet on a horse:
The reasons hiring is off is:
#1 uncertainty, obama has been a circus wheel of policy
#2 obama care, has raised the stakes on the bet
#3 unemployment insurance goes up if you have to fire the person for any reason. (bad fit, business slows ...)
#4 just in general may be opposed to obama and business owners are voting with checkbook.
I’m going to give you another theory.
My son moved in with us in the fall of 2012. Jobs are lean here, so he took a no-pay internship position.
For two months, he showed up for 40 hours a week. Everyone was happy with his work. There was a managerial slot open and they said that he was the guy to fill it.
The morning after the election, everyone filed into the office with a sense of depression and doom. The boss announced that they wouldn’t be filling ANY of the open slots. After another week or two (just to be sure that he couldn’t convince them to give him *any* job - let alone the great one) my son finally told them that he had to move on to a paying position.
That slot is still standing open.
Companies know darn well that Obama and the Democrats mean uncertainty, insanity, and irrational attacks from Washington. They’re holding back until 2016.
It’s up to us to return sanity to the market by electing adults that the market can depend on.
Here’s the real answer: Fedgov is lying. About everything. Next question.
Looks to me like Zero's re-election affected a lot of business plans.
Administration Propaganda(AP)
The figures being touted give numbers applying for benefits being lower but those who have exausted their benefits, have never been employed and thus not eligible to apply are growing. I think that those just entering the workforce pool are also being under represented in the figures. As kind of off-handedly mentioned, the % of the labor pool that is actually working has declined significantly. Also many are now part time as opposed to full time.
The only purpose of the numbers is to make Obola look good. Any number that does not is changed until it does.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.