I’m aware of the millions of working class whites who sat out the 2012 election. I agree had Romney earned their vote then he’d be president. But I was talking about your unrealistic dreams of a Cruz landslide. Obama won the popular vote by almost five million, so even if Romney had got all six million of the missing votes, he would hardly have won a landslide popular victory. He would have won a comfortable electoral college victory, but probably less than Obama’s actual victory.
And do you really think Cruz can carry California? I admire your optimism, but come on! That’s crazy.
Hispanics are natural Democrats. Plenty of polling data shows them to hold liberal views on most of the big issues. And if that isn’t proof enough, then their voting history should be.
So what do you consider to be a large portion of the Hispanic vote? Cruz didn’t win Latinos in his senate race. He, like all Republicans in Texas, owes his victory to winning an overwhelming share of the white vote.
I think you way overstate Cruz’ appeal to most Hispanics. Why would brown Mexicans in California support a white Cuban who disagrees with them on most issues?
It’s over in California. The demographics won’t allow it. The state is too diverse and it’s white population isn’t conservative enough (like in Texas). It sucks to write off a fifth of the electoral votes needed to win, but it is what it is. California is lost.
> “And do you really think Cruz can carry California? I admire your optimism, but come on! That’s crazy.”
Latinos are neither conservative or liberal. They are pro-latino. If some white union boss from SEIU tells them to vote for Hillary Clinton and they see Rafael Edward Cruz on the ballot, there is no question who they will vote for. That’s just how they are culturally. They are not Marxists or liberals, they are Latino first.
So yes, Cruz can carry California.
Romney did not carry any of the 6 million + Perot demographic and he barely carried the more important independent vote by only a percent whereas Cruz can carry the independent vote by more than 30% (Cruz can take 2/3’s of independents; see the simple math below).
Independents account for over 40% (Yep, that’s real: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/01/21/215122/as-independent-voters-numbers.html) of the electorate of which 2/3’s of it number more than 40 million.
See also http://www.examiner.com/article/number-of-independent-voters-skyrockets to discern that of nearly 150 million registered voters, more than 60 million are now identifying themselves as Independent. Any wonder why this hasn’t been all over the news? Because there is no figurehead of the Independents for the news media to focus on. They don’t know how to make it into one of their soap opera like newscasts of unfolding stories.
Study why people like me register as independent. I am nauseated and disgusted with democrats and I can’t stand the smug arrogance and stupidity of the GOP. So tens upon tens of millions of people like me see Ted Cruz as the only voice that stands against both of the major parties. Read the last link above.
And note I wouldn’t care if Ted Cruz was a Zell Miller democrat. His party affiliation means nothing to me. This is important to understand in terms of the mindset of the independent voter.
Among important subgroups Cruz will carry the White women vote as did Romney but he will also carry the Latino women vote which Romney lost by a huge margin.
The analysis of numbers point to a landslide for Cruz.
Where you are going wrong is in ignoring the Independent vote and the Latino vote. Those two groups and the Perot Demographic will combine with the GOP base vote to add up to more than 90 million votes, a blowout of historical proportions.
* 39 million base GOP voters
* 41 million Indy voters
* 6.5 million Perot Blue Collar voters
* 6 million Latino voters
and of the remaining 20 million Indy voters combining with 50 million democrat voters for a total of 70 million democrat votes, there will be at least 10% that sit home because of demoralization leaving only about 63 million to vote democrat.
Total number of Americans registered to vote 146,311,000 and total number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 131,144,000 or about 90% of registered voters;
Total number of Americans eligible to vote 206,072,000 versus the number of Americans who voted in the 2012 Presidential election 131,144,000 yields about 64% turnout.
Accounting for turnout then indeed yes, 81 mil to 56 mil, Cruz by a massive landslide in the popular vote.
You are a victim of an echo chamber drum beat that has dented your mind to think only of Dem and GOP. You can’t see beyond that because of the noisy distraction and annoying repetition, interruption and control of your information feed.