Posted on 09/19/2014 8:46:26 AM PDT by scouter
1. The first indication of Ebola in more civilized parts of Africa (Egypt, South Africa, Morocco.)
They are more civilized in an “in a world of the blind, the one eyed man is king” sort of way.
1) I am clear that I am not making ANY predictions. I am only projecting the numbers out into the future based on past performance, and assuming a stable rate of transmission. I'm explicit and clear about that.
2) I make your general point myself. There is no way to predict how it will behave in a more advanced country. My personal belief is that it will spread quickly, but not as quickly as in Africa. But there's plenty of evidence and logic to argue the other way, including how other epidemics have spread in the U.S.
While this article seems a little overly gentle for my taste, it does describe some important differences between Africa and here.
“Modern Plumbing: The Answer to Ebola epidemic”
http://www.ushealthworks.com/blog/index.php/2014/09/ebola-epidemic/
Poe's "The Masque of the Red Death"
Yes! I was trying to word that carefully. South Africa has slums, like every country. But they also have very “westernized” cities and facilities. Perhaps that is one of the places we will can examine how the virus works in a more sanitary environment.
I look at Cairo, for example, of how would act in a HUGE city that is connected through the Med to Europe and the Levant.
At this point I think examining the process and trying to consider the different impact points to come up with some points where the signals go from clear to concerned to really concerned to “I am heading for the hills.”
The debate, if kept “reasonable” is fascinating to me.
The doctor makes a some good points, but I agree, I think he's minimizing the threat. The very stomach flu he cites as an example of the superior hygiene in the U.S. is likewise an example of how fast epidemics can spread despite such infrastructure. And there's a huge difference between cleaning up after a vomiting session from a non-fatal stomach virus, and cleaning up after explosive diarrhea, vomiting, and bleeding that covers the walls of the room, as with Ebola.
I don’t disagree with the premise.
However, what scares me the most are the people who are so sick they cannot make it to the bathrooms in their homes. They will infect their housemates (families, caregivers, friends, etc.)
If you have ever been in a skilled care nursing facility when one of those “bugs” sweeps through, causing a lot of “gastro sickness”, you know what I mean. And those are skilled nursing facilities. Imagine what would happen in a tenement in the Bronx.
The part that frightens me the most is the lack of hospital facilities to deal with a pandemic. My wife works at a pretty decent sized hospital, and they would be working out of tents and setting up old style “wards.”
I honestly do not think it will come to that. I think it will get stopped before it jumps in Africa. But, being prepared was drilled into me when I was a kid. And risk management was drilled into my as a professional.
There was a Redbook article about Aids back in the early 80’s making the case that “Women are a natural firebreak to AIDS”. He then went on to explain why.
The CDC vilified the author. They said, and I paraphrase, “What he said is true, but it gives women a false sense of low risk and will increase the number of cases, so he should not have made that information public.”
Another good one.
Hope you are well.
There were times when I thought life boring,
now I just wish it was.
At this point I think examining the process and trying to consider the different impact points to come up with some points where the signals go from clear to concerned to really concerned to “I am heading for the hills.”
My 32 acres:
http://s409.photobucket.com/user/robbbb4/slideshow/Kentucky%20home
That was a lot of work, thank you for sharing.
I have only one question did you or is there even a way to take in account situations in which because of the death rate in combination of the lack of and deterioration of health service allows for both the increase spread and even higher death rate because of the lack of support treatment?
Depends a lot on mode of transmission.
If it is airborne, our sanitation and health care system won’t be of much help.
If it is passed by sweat, it could tear through an urban area in the summer, especially areas that depend on public transportation and plastic seating.
If it is fecal/oral then yes our sanitation system will provide a lot of protection.
As far as health care, it could swing either way, currently, we have no way of treating a mass outbreak, and a trip to the ER could be the primary source of exposure.
Mine is only four acres in Vermont. But “getting there” might be the problem. I am sure there are plenty of folks who will be concerned with any “migration.”
That is why I am working on the “trip wire” scenarios. I am also thankful I have close ties to the local Emergency Management Directors. (I figure I will get an hour or so head start!)
I bought it two weeks before the 2008 election and moved there three years ago. It took a while to get plugged into the IT community around here. I come home to paradise every night.
I call it “The Garden of Eden, but with more chiggers.”
Is that near the George Washington NF? I drove through that area this summer on my motorcycle (on my way to CA.)
What beautiful country.
Our biggest threat will be our government. I'm keeping my eyes and ears open, and will self-quarantine for up to a few months if it does seem prudent. I do not believe the gov would do all that's necessary. Because of the economy and that they'll want to reassure the public by keeping things running normally, the disease would spread.
When it leaves Africa, the disease probably won't be as effective. It spreads in those conditions. I'd think that refugee camps and situations in war-torn countries, and those with third world living conditions are where the real danger is.
Not impossible that it'll spread here, but the models don't factor in how conducive an environment is for spreading the disease.
I did not take that into account. But I think it is at least partially included in the Daily Transmission Rate (DTR), since the DTR was calculated based on the actual spread of Ebola under the conditions you describe.
I think a bigger limitation of the model is that it relies on reported cases, and there is plenty of evidence, and even testimony before Congress from people who would know, that the reported cases underestimate the true size of the epidemic by a factor of at least 2, and possibly as much as 4.
My spreadsheet allows me to assume any percentage of underreporting, but I chose not to publish those numbers, since no one really knows. The numbers, based on the reported cases only, are frightening enough.
I plan to publish the spreadsheet once I pretty it up and finish updating all the references for the sources of data. You can do those calculations then, if you want.
Another big limitation of the model as it stands now, is that it doesn't account for the decrease in the number of "available victims" as the population in a given area dies out. I'm pondering that one.
Can you show the graphs on a semi-log scale too, if you get a chance?
It’s pretty much dead center in KY. And it is a motorcyclist’s paradise.
This video really captures the beauty of this area. It’s from a local Model T club:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DIIhwE8Yo2Y
Some of those unstriped roads are the ones I commute on every day in my FR-s.
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