Given how capital-intensive fracking is, on an ongoing basis, do you seek it taking off anywhere outside the US, given how foreign governments have this way of nationalizing oil finds and/or tearing up existing contracts?
“Given how capital-intensive fracking is, on an ongoing basis, do you seek it taking off anywhere outside the US, given how foreign governments have this way of nationalizing oil finds and/or tearing up existing contracts?”
I do not see anything like the explosive nature of fraccing taking place anywhere in the foreseeable future.
You hit the nail as to why: foreign govts are too used to lucrative contracts benefiting them, and the capital intensive nature will allow meager shares to the govt due to the cost recovery mechanism of production sharing contracts, the primary contract vehicle in existence.
Nope. Not until their situation gets desperate and they need a US oil company to cme in and frack their existing fields to start secondary recovery.
Given how capital-intensive fracking is, on an ongoing basis, do you seek it taking off anywhere outside the US, given how foreign governments have this way of nationalizing oil finds and/or tearing up existing contracts?
....................
strategic calculations today based on natural resource considerations make an ass out of the people doing the same thing 5 years ago. Likely the same will be the case 5 years from now.
With that said,
....imho we are in the last great hurrah of the oil age. It will take at least 5 years for fracking to produce any real volume anywhere else in the world besides North America. However, 5 years from now or sometime after 2020 imho demand for oil will start to decline worldwide. Slowly at first but then the rate will start to accelerate.
Why?
Natural gas buildings trains trucks and buses in the USA will will strip up to 40% of the demand for oil out of the USA market because natural gas is so much cheaper than oil currently....and natural gas will remain cheaper.
but far more significantly ... after 2020...the volumes on electric cars will go way up. Tesla is not so much significant for themselves—though they are a very big deal — but rather what they are doing to all the major car companies around the world. Tesla is forcing all the major car companies to innovate toward electric cars in a very big way.
The result of this will be that somewhere around 2020 the volumes of electric cars will start to accelerate around the world. This is absolutely in the interest of every industrialized country in the world.
This fall in demand for oil caused by electric car production will cause a price collapse in the price of oil and seal off any real opportunities for any other countries to do fracking in a big way.
The great thing about this is that there will be a decades long battle between electric cars and internal combustion engine cars which will steadily shove the cost of gasoline down and the cost of internal combustion engine cars while raising their mpg and shelf life. The same thing will happen with electric cars. This titanic battle which pushes down the cost of energy will result in a huge decades long explosion of wealth around the world as happened in the 1990’s with low energy prices.
This great battle between internal combustion engine based cars and electric engine base cars will be a great testimony to the creative destruction of the capitalist system but it will likely go unrecognized as such.
anyhow that’s my wild ass guess or wag for short. there’s probably not word of truth to it.