Why Scotland looks like the canary in the independence coal mine

Reuters ^ | 09/17/2014 | Mark Leonard

[SeekAndFind]

Scotland’s drive to independence has been interpreted by many as a throwback to ancient identity politics – but many of the trends on display in the Scottish referendum have more to do with the politics of the future than those of the past.

The polls show that this week’s vote is too close to call. There is still a chance that the “No” campaign will ultimately prevail – something that I dearly hope will happen both for the sake of the Scots and the rest of the Britain.

But whatever the result of the vote, I think we must recognize that the “Yes” campaign has done more to shape the agenda of Scottish politics. And it is the forces it tapped into that will also change politics around the world.

So far, the commentary has focused on whether a Yes vote in Scotland will have resonance among other minorities in search of statehood – from Catalonia and Flanders to Taiwan and Quebec.

But the truth is that the political trends in Scotland are also reshaping many nations that do not face imminent break-up – from America to Zambia.

I would point to four trends in particular:

1. SELF-GOVERNMENT WILL INCREASINGLY TRUMP ECONOMICS

The Unionist ‘No’ camp have stressed all of the economic benefits of being part of the union as well as the uncertainty about the future of a Scottish currency as well as Scottish membership of the EU and NATO. This week has been full of talk of dangers to Scotland’s financial services industry from independence (several banks just announced that they would relocate their headquarters to London). The UK treasury estimates that Scots received between 14 percent and 16 percent more in public spending per head than people in the rest of the UK.

[Atilla_the_Hun]

Yes, indeed the numbers you present are interesting. I was doing a quick search today and couldn’t pinpoint them, including amount of Quebec power sold to the US.

Thought your point about oil was good, but consider MW distribution to Uncle Sam’s NE. I postulate that if Quebec had been successful(separation) they would held hostage very dependent US/NE and price/demand would be different then standard rates... i.e. the Francophon-shieks

[thackney]

Hydro-Quebec puts their 2013 exports $1.353 billion Canadian ($1.23 USD)

http://www.hydroforthefuture.com/projets/34/developing-outside-markets

they would held hostage very dependent US/NE and price/demand would be different then standard rates

Not for too many years. They sell that much power because they can sell it cheaper than Natural Gas generation. Jack it up too high and power turbines will be popping up like weeds; just like following the California/Enron power game in 2000/01. That provided work for many of us designing/building Natural Gas pipelines and power plants. I worked on several to serve that market.