I think yours is high. A month ago when the spread rate was 5% increase per day, I was projecting 200,000 in 90 days. But the most recent week showed a spread rate of 3% which would put us at 69,000 by Dec 12th.
Basic formula that I’m using is:
Current Cases * (SpreadRate)^#DaysOut)
Still a very serious crisis. One that the WHO has been criminally negligent in responding to.
I hope you're right. The formula I'm using is Cases ^ (((DTR-1) * DaysOut) + 1).
Let's do an example, based on the actual data:
On 6/1/14 there were 383 reported cases. 101 days later, on 9/10/14 there were 4,845 cases. This gives a DTR of 1.004224155. Let's see how that DTR would project from June 1 to June 30 (29 days later).
If you use the formula, you will get:
383^(((1.004224155 - 1) * 29) + 1)
383^((.004224155 * 101) + 1)
383^(0.426639655 + 1)
383^1.426639655 = 794
The actual number of cases on June 30 was 759. So it's about 5% high in this instance. But let's do it again using June's DTR to project what the number of cases were at the end July. June's DTR was 1.00396518542771.
383^(((1.00396518542771 - 1) * 60) + 1)
383^((.00396518542771 * 60) + 1)
383^(0.219111856626 + 1)
383^1.219111856626 = 1,410
But at the end of July (actually, July 30) there were, in fact, 1440 cases. So the model is pretty close, but comes in 2% low.
Keep in mind that the model will improve over time as the actual numbers are incorporated.