Capital Market Update; Investment & Finance Thread (Sept. 14 edition)

Weekly investment & finance thread ^ | Sept. 14, 2014 | Freeper Investors

[expat_panama]

Capital Market Update; Investment & Finance Thread (Sept. 14 edition)

In a phrase it looks like everything's beginning to bust loose for stocks, metals, bonds --something here for everyone!

 

Stocks chalked up another distribution day last Friday as the S&P nudges toward the famous 10-week moving aveage that serves as a floor in the good times and a ceiling in the bad.  Traders are also noticing that over the past week or two up volume was slight while down volume was strong.  Like maybe some kind of consensus or something, at least for the short term.  Remember however that major indexes only got 2 distribution days (downtrends usually want say, 6) plus things are looking more and more like we're finally tearing into our next 'super-cycle' leap (tx Wyatt!). 

Bottom line though, stocks are dangerous.  In fact a while back there was a story in the Miami Hearald about a guy that put his life savings in stocks and the next day he was killed by a huge pile of money falling on him.  Dave Berry column...

 

Metals dropped the other shoe this past week as Gold'n'Platinum were flirting w/ mult-year lows and silver actually made it to 2010 levels.  Historic prices is one the arguments some traders consider when they act like they're expecting further price drops. 

This is beginning to look like the broader commodity price trend, on this other thread --Oil demand growth slips to 'remarkable' 2½-year low (tx Chgogal!) we're seeing crude, gas, heating oil prices all in fade mode.

On top of all that, even the bond markets are romping into new territory as T-bills tank and the dollar soars.  (Talk about yer cash hoarding.) 

fwiw over the past few weeks the Yen, British Pound, Swiss Franc, Mexican Peso have all been falling while the Dollar's been climbing.

**************

 

So while everyone's got their own view point, what I'm seeing (mho) is we're into the end of the month/wrapping up the 3rd quarter, war breaking out in Syria-Iraq-Ukraine, and we're on the home stretch of the 2014 elections (maybe even getting some relief from headlines like Plans to Turn ‘Politically Binding’ UN Climate Change Accord Into Federal Law -hat tip to Lurkina.n.Learnin). 

Anyway, other than those things there's really no reason for all these new breakouts.

 

This is the thread where folks swap ideas on savings and investment --here's a list of popular investing links that freepers have posted here and tomorrow morning we'll go on with our--

Open invitation continues always for idea-input for the thread, this being a joint effort works well.   Keywords: financial, WallStreet, stockmarket, economy.

 

[expat_panama]

 

Good Morning Campers!  Looks like we're back into stocks-down & metals-up again, both w/ yesterday's trade in metals rebounding coupled w/ NASDAQ's distribution, into today's futures action.   Some say yesterday's move was in response to the bad industrial numbers that came after the good industrial numbers, but the fact that we've been in a goodnews-badnews mode for so long makes it easy to see more of the same coming next.   At any rate, today's reports are wholesale prices (PPI) and capital flows (Net Long-Term TIC Flows).   Here's our biz-world stack'o'stuff:

• World stocks hit one-month low, focus on Fed Reuters - 9 hours ago  LONDON (Reuters) - Global shares slipped to a one-month low on Tuesday as markets braced for a Federal Reserve meeting, when investors will be looking for clues on whether the U.S.
• So What Exactly Is Alibaba? Forbes - 39 minutes ago You all know the headlines: the biggest ever tech float. The biggest ever Chinese float. The biggest ever US IPO. In fact, after yesterday's increased price range, very likely the biggest IPO ever, with the potential to raise over US$25 billion.
• High Cost of Tax Inversions - Lewis Uhler & Peter Ferrara, Washington Times
• Going bananas when corporations flee By Robert Knight Socialism in its many guises depends on the use of force. Its animating principle — envy — means seizing wealth and redistributing it.
• Live Longer & Better, Thanks to the Market System - Editorial, Investor's
• Why Did Microsoft Just Pay $2.5B for Minecraft? - Kevin Roose, New York

[Wyatt's Torch]

Dave Lutz of JonesTrading has the top topics about which traders are talking about today:

Good Morning! US Futures are starting in the red, with Russell underperforming again – as Global Growth concerns were not abated last night, with German economic confidence in current conditions plunging in as worries about Russian sanctions mounted (Rouble to new lows as the cease-fire comes under pressure overnight) – and Doves retreated in China after news that foreign direct investment fell sharply last month. Alibaba lifts range to $66-$68, up from $60-$66, and today should wrap the bulk of the “fundraising” for the IPO. Overseas, the FTSE is losing 80bp in good volume, and Sterling is lower as polls continue to illustrate the Scottish vote is on a knife-edge. The DAX is off 40bp, while we are seeing decent volume in the EU periphery markets as PIIGS yields are rising – and French Equities are not stressed about France’s socialist government facing its second confidence vote in less than six months around 1pmET. Japan was under pressure after their 3day weekend as Banks retreated We cannot discount the impact of China’s shoddy data over the weekend causing the “Global Growth” retreat yesterday, and that may continue today – with the Shanghai Composite losing 1.8% in 1.5x normal volume – Industrials, Tech, Energy were all hit for ~4% in Shenzhen. That, coupled with RBA minutes hit the A$ to 6M lows overnight.

The Oil complex is back under pressure (key upside leadership group y’day), with Brent only momentarily bouncing from the roll-over of the October contract ahead of WTI storage data the next 24 hours. Part of the Selloff must be blamed on Fed Concerns, as many key groups (Biotech, Internet, Smallcaps) had recovered towards pre “Yelloff” heights when Janet called out overvaluation. Tightening fears (along with China) have been weighing on Emerging Markets – The FTSE Emerging equity index is on course for its longest run of losses in more than 10 years. Keep an eye on that “Policy Sensitive” 2YY, it’s been getting gappy to the upside lately, adding nearly 20bp in 4 weeks. Commodity players also remain focused on the crowded short in Grains and Beans – Corn and Wheat had big upside reversal days yesterday, and are jumping 1%+ again this AM. Scheduled catalysts today include PPI at 8:30, Fed’s Hunter Speaks on Community Banking at 10, we have the week’s largest POMO at 11. Today is expiry of the current VIX contract as well.

[expat_panama]

the Scottish vote is on a knife-edge.

That concerns me too.  The U.S. and the U.K. make a good team and a "DissUK" just wouldn't be the same...

[Rich21IE]

The Scottish vote is definitely a concern to me. I can’t parse through the cloud of details to see what its going to mean.

[Chgogal]

A very good big picture read on America's Gimme Society. You will both enjoy it from a stat POV. The US to date has spent $22 Trillion on the War on Poverty!

http://dailysignal.com/2014/09/16/war-poverty-colossal-flop/

Here in good old Illinois signing up for food stamps outpaces job creation by 1,000,000!

http://www.illinoispolicy.org/jobs-vs-food-stamps/

I am keeping an eye on Ebola. The US is now sending in 3,000 Troops and 160,000 haz mat suits to the region. It will be interesting how the world will react once it breaks out of West Africa and reaches India (now that is really scary), Europe and/or the US. I think United and Delta are still flying planes in out of the affected regions.

http://www.delta.com/content/www/en_US/traveling-with-us/advisories/west-africa-health-situation.html

What United and other airlines are doing.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/air-service-cuts-hinder-access-to-ebola-regions-1409175631

[Chgogal]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lakeland-industries-announces-global-availability-142200024.html

[Aquamarine]

Dent says they are going down a lot further if you want to believe what he says.

[expat_panama]

...Scottish vote is definitely a concern to me. I can’t parse through the cloud of details...

Love to get someone else's take on this, but what I'm getting is that the central gov't in London's gone conservative and the leftist welfare immigrants to Scotland (mostly Poles and Turks) don't have a sense of history here and just want to stick it to the English.  The irony is that the English is pouring bigtime welfare funds north and that stops if separation happens.

[expat_panama]

once it breaks out of West Africa and reaches India

Panama has dengue because Strongman Torillos brought in Ortega's Nicaraguan troops that had been loaned to Castro for fighting in West Africa's Angola.  Dengue's horrible.  They call it 'break-bone-fever' because it's so friggin' painful.

[expat_panama]

going down a lot further

Metals are bouncing downward onto successive new lows, and that's when a trader says "the trend is your friend" and plans on further declines.  Historically gold tends to hang around $500/oz in 2014$.

[Aquamarine]

A Christian's point of view on the subject. The End of Britian Is Nigh

[Chgogal]

All I can say if you are in a tropical environment mosquito repellent, screen doors/windows and mosquitoes nets are your best friends. Dengue is also showing up in Florida. In Bali at the Grand Hyatt I couldn't find a mosquito anywhere and standing water ponds everywhere. It was a miracle I tell you! Then at night there was a thick fog of repellent I had to walk through to get to my room. No mosquitoes, roaches, birds, frogs......... ; )
http://time.com/2823716/dengue-fever-florida-mosquito-borne-disease-outbreak/

When I went to Southeast Asia and Hawaii I brought my handy dandy 100% deet mosquito repellent. My (green) friends had this natural lemon stuff that didn't work. I did not one get bite, they on the other hand......

http://www.amazon.com/s/?ie=UTF8&keywords=insect+repellent+100+deet&tag=googhydr-20&index=aps&hvadid=34683654168&hvpos=1t1&hvexid=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=13431041131994253891&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=b&hvdev=c&ref=pd_sl_3ruajch46m_b

[expat_panama]

Welcome to the mid-week rebound!  Yesterday metals and stocks bounced back up and this morning's futures have them both flat (morning traders have gold up and silver down).   Let's see how todays trade reacts to today's reports:

MBA Mortgage Index
CPI
Core CPI
Current Account Balance
NAHB Housing Market Index
Crude Inventories
FOMC Rate Decision

--w/ all but the Rate Decision this morning beginning 1-1/2 hrs. before the bell.    A lot of buzz about the Fed, China, and more:

• What's Keeping the Fed From Raising Short-Term Interest Rates  TheStreet.com - 29 minutes ago NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- The Federal Reserve may be ending its monetary stimulus, but it's not quite ready to start signaling higher interest rates.
• Fed, China stimulus hopes boost world stocks   Reuters
• World Stocks Mostly Higher Ahead of Fed Statement   ABC News
• Why the Fed could still surprise markets The Fed could surprise markets regardless of what it does, simply because of the wide divergence in Wall Street views about its move next move.
• Billionaire's house arrest sends stocks crashing Billionaire's house arrest sends stocks crashing MOSCOW (AP) — The arrest of a Russian billionaire on Wednesday sent shares in his holding company into a tailspin, wiping away more than $2.5 billion in market capitalization. Vladimir Yevtushenkov, who is worth $9 billion according to the Russian…
• 'Poverty' In America Isn't Your Father's Poverty - Robert Rector, Investor's
• The Recovery Won't Be For a While, If At All - Editorial, New York Times
• 5 Things to Watch At The Fed Meeting - Pedro da Costa, Wall Street Journal
• Fed Exit May Be a Bumpy Ride for Investors - Eisen & Robb, MarketWatch
• Fed Could Jolt the Markets, No Matter What It Does - Patti Domm, CNBC
• Crash Ahead!!!! - Robert Seawright, Above The Market
• Stocks Rise As Sun Unexpectedly Rises - Sigmund Holmes

[expat_panama]

in a tropical environment mosquito repellent, screen doors/windows and mosquitoes nets

Not just for the tropics of course, historically Washington/Philadelphia areas were rancid w/ malaria.  Being smart is what's needed. Heavy military traffic w/ thousands shuttling back'n'forth between Ebola areas and the entire U.S. to is not smart.

[expat_panama]

Can’t stop remembering an old 1930’s Rex Harrison movie where he heard a bunch of people shouting “SCOTLAND FOR THE SCOTS” and his comment was “I didn’t know anyone else wanted it...”

[Wyatt's Torch]

Core CPI 0.0%

But but but MONEY PRINTING??????

[Rich21IE]

Thanks for that article, it was very interesting and informative. Reading it, I had one of those “Golden Corral” moments where I got struck upside the head with a skillet and realized, “Well, yea, of course, its all about the ‘free’ money!”

I also had a very uncomfortable moment when I realized that in talking about, “where there is no vision, the people perish.” And then, “That vision is gone. The nation does not even try to give its young people a sense of worth or purpose, so they turn to drink and fun.”

Seems to me that problem applies to the US as well.

[expat_panama]

MONEY PRINTING??

[mandatory hyperinflation photo]

[Chgogal]

Hey there!!!!

The “core” stuff I have to purchase/pay to live:

1. People Food and Doggie Food (don't get me started);
2. Gas ($1.85 November 2008 now $4.00);
3. Clothes (well ladies’ clothes are always going up);
4. The dogie doctor (letter explaining how ObamaCare affected them);
5. Taxes in general and in particular Property Taxes, Fees etc. (OK, I live in Chicago); and
6. Utility Bills (mainly cable)

have gone up. So, I am so very happy that that the Fed's CPI is 0% and that they are not MONEY PRINTING!!!!

[Chgogal]

Being smart is what's needed. Heavy military traffic w/ thousands shuttling back’n’forth between Ebola areas and the entire U.S. to is not smart.

I wonder if the 1918 Influenza Pandemic that killed 20 million worldwide and was spread by the Troopers traveling back and forth between the continents rings a bell with Obama. But no worries because Ebola is not airborne and the flu is. : )

Not just for the tropics of course, historically Washington/Philadelphia areas were rancid w/ malaria. Being smart is what's needed.

In 1994 I took a road trip from Chicago through many of the Southern States. I drove the Natchez Trace which is a super secret National Park. The Trace began in Natchez, Mississippi and ended between Nashville and Franklin, Tennessee. It was the first immigration path into the US where people were needed to populate Tennessee and Kentucky. There are some very interesting stops along the way (Louis from Louis and Clark fame, committed suicide in a Stand (Inn) along the trace). One stop had the remains of a town that disappeared in a single summer due to a yellow fever outbreak. Yellow Fever - I was amazed. Now the greenie-weenies are having us bring back wetlands that our great grand fathers did away with for very good reasons. I call these wetlands Mosquito Farms. Oh well.

http://adventure.howstuffworks.com/scenic-drive-in-mississippi-natchez-trace-parkway-ga.htmhttp://adventure.howstuffworks.com/scenic-drive-in-mississippi-natchez-trace-parkway-ga.htm

http://www.nps.gov/natr/planyourvisit/parkway-maps.htm

http://www.tripadvisor.com/Attraction_Review-g60746-d550082-Reviews-Natchez_Trace_

http://natchez-trace.thefuntimesguide.com/2006/12/natchez_trace_sights_sounds.php