Posted on 08/31/2014 9:34:25 AM PDT by lbryce
Because he was panicked about the previous store not having any. I used to go round and round with Target on this, they used to be the only source in town for the cat litter we use, but they’d never stock much, so when I found it I bought it all. Eventually (possibly inspired by my e-mails, or maybe they just figured it out on their own) they started actually having more on the shelves than I could buy, and always had it in stock, so I stopped taking it all. But when people are convinced there’s a shortage they tend to get it all, just to make sure they don’t run out.
Its not important if 22 costs .07 or even .12 cents per round.
The issue is that you can’t get it.
When you can find it in Walmart then you buy it and they will only sell 3 boxes per customer because its scarce.
Supply is irregular at best and almost impossible in large population centers.
Its not important if 22 costs .07 or even .12 cents per round.
The issue is that you can’t get it.
When you can find it in Walmart then you buy it and they will only sell 3 boxes per customer because its scarce.
Supply is irregular at best and almost impossible in large population centers.
WOW! I must have started late in the game. I usually check each day, and rarely does the STEEL hit 40 cents a round. But you are correct—lucky to find $500/1000 brass 308.
Ammo mfg companies are using bad algorithms for predicting market. We all have hi calibre weapons, but we don’t use that much ammo for them because after a couple of mags, you pick up the .22 for plinking. Other stuff is too expensive. But they are basing mfg on kinds of weapons people have. Also the rim fire machine is very expensive to set up, they don’t want to spend the money if no one is going to use the product. But again, they are not taking in data for what weapons people are using.
Or maybe they’re only selling 3 boxes because that makes it SEEM scarce so people keep buying it. At the gun shop near me they haven’t had a shortage of any kind of ammo at all. Maybe it’s just a discount retail problem, or maybe “problem”.
Demand is dropping.”””
I disagree.
NOT in California or Nevada.
“Read this article three times. I can’t figure out what caused the shortage yet.
Can anyone illuminate this for me?”
The shortage has been caused by demand surging far beyond supply, and far beyond possibilities of expanding supply in the near term.
As Sherman Logan pointed out so clearly in response to Eaker (post 89), economic theory can explain why any increase in supply of 22 rimfire ammunition has been lagging demand. One might have amplified: economists have no grasp of economic reality (nor any other sort of reality).
In the real world - the one we lesser mortals are stuck with - expansion of production doesn’t happen automatically nor smoothly. New facilities and machinery cost money; somebody has to go out and collect funds. Even when funds are ready, someone has to actually build the factories, buy the machines, set everything up, test the system, and debug flaws. New workers must be found, recruited, and trained. Supplies of raw materials have to be located, secured, and transported to the new factory.
All this takes time.
And real risk is involved. What happens when the buying public loses interest? It has happened before, much quicker than any entrepreneur can notice and react (despite their genius, and high self-regard). No producer wants to be stuck with excess production capacity, and that reluctance has expanded dramatically of late. Investors want a return on their investments, and these days they want more of it, sooner.
Ammunition manufacture is very inflexible, in terms of expanding output. Rimfire ammunition manufacture is the least flexible of all. Machinery is unbelievably expensive and takes longer to produce than any other cartridge type (which is slow, compared to many other manufactured items). And profit margins are very, very low.
Additionally, raw material for ammunition is subject to competition on the international market, which has only intensified over the last 25 years.
As if all of that were not bad enough, the supporting industries (mining, refining, smelting for the metals; chemical manufacture for primers and propellant) are heavily regulated, by EPA and OSHA. All of them suffer from PR problems, thanks to Left/Progressive demonizing (they suffer unfairly). And we must recognize that all things gun-related have been under attack by anti-gun activists, and are continually hampered and threatened by product liability lawsuits and worries over looming legislation. Banks are browbeaten, to halt any traffic they might have, with the gun industry.
No ammunition maker loves the buying public enough to go farther (nor faster) than they are presently going, nor to risk legal trouble. More legal trouble, that is, than they are inundated by already.
Final caution: stop looking to Motley Fool for advice. Even investment advice.
Your explanation is dead on. I’ve followed this closely and even had the opportunity to tour the Hornady plant in Grand Island, Ne (they run 24/7) and have talked with and read interviews with other ammo execs.
The thing about Walmart is that they DO have shipments of .22LR’s coming in. You just have to get there early in the a.m. so when it goes on sale at 7 a.m. you can get your 3 boxes. Yes most of the guys in line seem to resell what they get (I don’t, mine is/was for personal use and I have enough)but there nothing illegal about reselling it.
Don’t like it? Then get there earlier in line than they do. There are a # of apps that let you know what and when a particular WM is getting in stock.
I don’t think consumer demand explains the shortage.
Haven’t seen any in months.
I just treat mine with eezox and wipe them down.
I still have Aussie .308 I paid $99 a case fore during the GWB admin.
I am at least seeing the stuff again after years of empty shelves.
Me too. My son got me a Marlin 60 rifle for Christmas and I was finally able to find some 22lr for it at a local gunstore just a few weeks ago.
But then I lost the rifle in another tragic boating accident. When will I ever learn?
I’m undecided.
I heard recently that some manufacturer (CCI?) was making 3 million rounds per day.
At that rate they make enough for everyone in the country to get one round ... every 100 days.
If only 10% of the population is looking for 22LR ammo, then they can each get one round every ten days, or a box of 50 every year-and-a-half. (from that manufacturer - add all the manufacturers, and 10% of the country can get a box every few months).
The supply really is just a trickle compared to the demand.
It doesn’t strike me as reasonable that a few years ago I could go to the store and get thousands of rounds just about anytime I wanted to, and that now I can’t get 22LR period. I just happened to go to WalMart today and the shelves were empty. Shotgun shells a few 45 rounds, and that was it.
I just find it hard to believe there are that many more 22 owners clamoring for rounds. I’ve got a decent stock so I haven’t bought in a long time. But probably every other time I enter a store that does sell rounds I’ll check and they’ll be empty.
If I go to a specialty gun shop they’ll be able to get rounds at double+ the price.
Consumer demand just doesn’t answer the mail for me.
Yep. If gun purchases doubled and the standard one case per gun was followed that could have some impact.
Damn shame, those Marlins work like a hose.
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