Posted on 08/30/2014 6:07:15 PM PDT by tennmountainman
Ukip are set to win their first Commons seat with a landslide 64 per cent of the vote following the biggest swing in modern political history. Turncoat MP Douglas Carswell is set to humiliate David Cameron at the Clacton by-election sparked by his defection, a Survation poll for The Mail on Sunday has revealed. The figures – the first test of public opinion since the politician rocked Westminster by defecting to Nigel Farage’s party – predict a record 48 point swing towards Ukip.
(Excerpt) Read more at dailymail.co.uk ...
The more likely result is another coalition, this time Conservative-UKIP. If so UKIP will extract its price.
It depends on just how much the Conservatives want to stay in power.
No it doesn't. Parties in parliamentary forms of gov't form coalitions all the time. In fact, this is the reason why the Tories are currently in power and David Cameron is Prime Minister, with the Tories having formed a coalition with the Liberal Democrats. If the Tories got 43% and UKIP got 12%, they would almost certainly form a coalition. And by the way, you have left the Liberal Democrats out of your calculations.
A little more information on the UK House of Commons, the lower house of the national parliament.
It consists of 650 seats, each elected from single member districts (known variously as constituencies or ridings), each with about 95,000 residents. The term of office is a maximum of 5 years; however, elections are called when the ruling party thinks the time is right, or when the government collapses as the result of losing a “no confidence” vote.
At the present time, no political party holds an absolute majority of the seats in the Commons. The largest party is the Conservatives (also known as the Tories), with 303. They formed a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats (56 seats), so the current governing coalition consists of 359 members. If 35 members of the coalition defected to the UKIP or sat as independents, the government would lose a “no confidence” vote, Parliament would dissolve, and a new election for all 650 members would be called (usually within a few weeks of the dissolution of the House.
There are a total of 11 parties represented in the Commons, as well as 3 independents; Labour is the big opposition party at 257 members.
Clacton is a seaside area east of London in the county of Essex.
Then I suggest The Tory’s begin to change the policies that have brought
their once great empire to the brink. And begin to enact the policies that
will bring these British Patriots back. More lip service and tough talk will
not be enough.
Go UKIP!
Yes,they do.However I have seen one blessed suggested that UKIP will win any more than a few seats in a General Election.OTOH,they could easily take enough votes from Conservatives in a marginal constituency to give Labour the seat with 35% or 40% of the vote.
Remember....BillyBobBlythe 43%...Ross Perot 20%.
Looks like, albeit very late, that the English are starting to wake up to the Muzzie and EU threat and are attempting to take back their country. My English Aunt told me 15 years ago that England was gone as far as being over run by Muslims but I think it is never too late to take a stand! Half of the English are to polite for their own good and the other half are too drunk to do any good - hopefully this is changing!
Your comment indicates you don't understand parliamentary forms of government in general and Britain's system of gov't in particular. Britain doesn't have an electoral college which results in the presidential candiate who gets an absolute majority of electoral votes becoming President. If we had had a parliamentary type of gov't then Perot would have been kingmaker and would have cut a deal with either Bush or Clinton to make one of them President, depending of course on who offered him the sweetest terms.
In the case of your scenario, where the Tories and UKIP got a majority of parliamentary seats, then they would almost certainly form a coalition. That's a much more plausible scenario than Labor Party cutting a deal with UKIP to put Labor in charge.
Several problems with your analysis. Perhaps you ought to quit drinking the Tory water:
1) It’s the number of seats, not the percentage of popular vote that’s most important
2) You’ve completely ignored the Lib/Dems. Although they are irrelevant, they still do pull some of the vote and will hold some seats.
3) If the reds do win a plurality of seats, the other parties could still try to put together a coalition.
Frankly, you are coming across like a GOP establishment guy with your post.
+1
I enjoyed this somewhat-related interview with Andy Duncan:
Andy Duncan: The Charade of Independence for UKIP and Scotland
http://thevictoryreport.org/charade-independence-scotland/
Mr. Duncan is a Financial Derivatives Lecturer. He was interviewed by Jeff Deist.
And Gore would have been in charge from 2001-2009.
I didn't say that they'd get a combined majority of *seats*,I said that,combined,they could get a majority of the *vote* in many,maybe even the majority,of constituencies.So,combined,they get 55% of the votes in constituency after constituency (Tory-40%,UKIP-15%) while Labour gets 41% in each of them.
I love Nigel Farage.I make it a point to watch youtube videos of his European Parliament speeches on a regular basis.I also thought that Ross Perot had some worthwhile things to say.But I didn't vote for him...because I knew he didn't have a prayer and all he could do was cause Bush to lose.Same goes in Britain.Farage will win,perhaps,a handful of seats and very,*very* probably will cost Cameron a umber of seats that he otherwise would have taken.Result? You know what the result will be.
The pages above are from the UKIP web site.
Anyone know if the REPUBLICAN PARTY has a similar stand??
If so, they sure have kept it a secret.
Good grief. Only idiots will trot that out to try to argue prima facie against independent/3rd party runs.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.