Your basic idea is still in play, IMHO. We are gaining on the 120% debt to GDP ratio. THAT trajectory is set. There is absolutely nothing that Congress will do the reverse course on the debt. Nothing. When the credit spigot gets turned off, the federal budget will have to be reduced by a minimum of 50% - overnight. THAT’s when the EBT cards will be turned off. The resulting societal discohesion will be like nothing we’ve ever seen. The weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth over the 2% sequestration will pale in comparison to the absolute pain of cutting the federal budget 50% overnight. The progs have succeeded beyond their wildest imaginings in creating a dependent class. When their entitlements are turned off, they are going to do exactly what you think they’re going to do.
There are a lot of other issues that could move up the timeline but the basic trajectory is set. ISIS, Iran, Russia, China, ebola on our shores, other illegal immigrant related epidemics (enterovirus is just the first of many to come), another asset-related financial crash, EMP from either Russia or Iran - any of those issues might alter the timetable but won’t change the ultimate end point. Then your scenario plays out.
But this particular prediction is toast. THANK THE LORD.