Posted on 08/28/2014 9:07:06 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker may survive, but the Walker Hypothesis seems dead. In a poll released by Marquette University Law School on Wednesday, Walker’s Democratic challenger, Mary Burke, has her biggest lead among likely voters, 49 percent to 47 percent. In May Burke trailed Walker 48–45, but pulled ahead by one point (47–46) in July. Walker’s recent attempts to define Burke, including the risky attack on the practices of her family company, haven’t appeared to work.
As I wrote earlier this month, the Wisconsin governor’s race touches a lot of national themes. On the Democratic side, it is a test of the strength of union forces that have branded Walker enemy No. 1 and a test of how effectively a candidate can be attacked for those who back him. (Walker has been supported by the Koch brothers.) But the biggest national test taking place in Wisconsin is a test of the Walker Hypothesis, which held that a politician who enacted conservative policies and didn’t shrink from the resulting controversy would be rewarded by a wide range of voters—conservatives, but also swing voters. It was a model that conservatives offered not just for other GOP governors, but for the party’s presidential candidates.
With each new poll showing a close race, that hypothesis grows weaker. Walker may win (he’s ahead by three points with registered voters, he’s an incumbent, has lots of money and is a fierce competitor) but the polls seem pretty conclusive that it will only be through a grinding and close political battle where he relies deeply on his base. That’s not how the hypothesis was supposed to work. “Results trump everything else,” Walker told National Review last November. “If you deliver, voters will stick with you,” he said during his book tour
(Excerpt) Read more at slate.com ...
November 5th is going to be a rough day for this country.
All the discontent and malcontent over the lop sided results will probably lead to riots across the land.
or maybe not.
Party ON!!
All the Left has left is polls.
“The fact this will even be close shows just how doomed we are as a society. Americans lack the political will to make the hard choices. As a result, sooner or later even harder choice will be made for them. Fools.”
Leftists ignore facts and vote on guilt. Thus, Blue States might be impossible to reverse back to Red. Can someone point to an example of this happening?
Obama is not on the ballot and what does anyone over at Slate think is the likely hood of high turnout rates for African Americans in Milwaukee for a trust fund living white woman that is running for governor...?
——November 5th is going to be a rough day for this country.-——
Only if you are a libtard....
Another leftist poll by Marquette Univ. don’t believe it. Take it to the bank Walker will win!
Likely voters vs REGISTERED voters the never ending debate...
from of all places kos
ASSUMPTIONS versus EVIDENCE: THE RV/LV DIVIDE
ASSUMPTION #1: Likely voter polls are more accurate than ones of registered voters
ASSUMPTION: Incorrect
Of the 50 state presidential polls conducting during the final month of the 2004 and 2008 presidential campaigns, the RV result was closer to the final outcome than the LV result in fully half of them. In just 38 percent of them was the LV screen closer to the final outcome than the RV screen. In six of the polls, incidentally, there was no difference between the RV/LV results in a poll.
For what it is worth, those numbers track closely to a study I did of downballot polling in advance of the 2010 midterm elections.
Actually, Wisconsin is actually very blue, very red and very purple. The city of Milwaukee and the People's Republic of Madison have been and always will be blue. Western & Northwoods Wisconsin is bluish-purple (I blame the proximity to Minnesota DFLers). The suburban/exurban counties surrounding Milwaukee are extremely red. and central and northeastern Wisconsin are moderately red.
Yes, Wisconsin has not been won by a GOP presidential candidate since 1984, but that is largely due to rampant voter fraud in Madison & Milwaukee. In lower turnout non-presidential years, the state as a whole is purple with a slight reddish tinge.
With regard to this specific poll, the poll oversampled Democrats +5% and conducted the poll over a weekend which is viewed by polling experts as problematic. Weekend sampling tends to produce more tepid GOP responders.
I'm not worried. No matter what polls may say, Walker will win 53-47.
Good information, thanks!
Burke is just not a strong candidate. She’s a bike heiress whose past experience serving Doyle and later on the school board (yes, school board) is nothing special. She’s more physically attractive than Rosa DeLauro and Barbara Mikulski, but better candidates (Feingold) passed on this race.
Well said.
Walker has come out on top repeatedly and decisively, all recently. The voters have weighed in multiple times. Walker is the incumbent, he has the infrastructure, and he has the experience campaigning.
There have been no in-state developments that would cause voters to change their minds, the president’s popularity is in the tank, and every possible development on the national and global landscapes is trending against dems.
I am not overconfident, I don’t think, but I am not especially anxious either.
I doubt lessons have been learned from the David Clarke episode, and Walker's victory will mirror Clarke's.
For those not in the area, David Clarke is Milwaukee's DEMOCRAT sheriff. He's conservative, and he's black. The Dem County Executive used $400,000 of his Daddy's money and Michael Bloomberg kicked in another hundred grand to pound Clarke.
This massive overreach backfired--it lit a huge fire under the conservatives in Milwaukee County and many of us crossed over to vote in the Democrat primary. Result? The Man in the White Hat emerged unscathed.
correction - Clarke is the Sheriff of Milwaukee County.
“Walker, BTW, won the recall election over the rat Barrett by 7 points, 53% to 46%.”
AND SEVEN MILLION MORE came out to vote for him during the recall election than they did the first time around!
I’ve voted for him 3x so far - between elections and primaries - and will vote for him again in November.
Love My Gov!
“Personally expect the results will be no different than the recall...will be “real close” until reality sets in.”
Agreed. :)
Love My Gov!
Sheriff Clarke’s VICTORY was sweet, indeed! Hoping to vote for him on a state or national level one day. :)
Mongol General: Hao! Dai ye! We won again! This is good, but what is best in life?
Mongol: The open steppe, fleet horse, falcons at your wrist, and the wind in your hair.
Mongol General: Wrong! Conan! What is best in life?
Conan: To crush your enemies, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women.
Mongol General: That is good! That is good.
Extremely tight. And the election is in November and it’s still August.
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