Ebola Could Eventually Afflict Over 20,000, W.H.O. Says (Why Would It Stop There?)

New York Times ^ | August 28, 2014 | NICK CUMMING-BRUCE and ALAN COWELL

[PJ-Comix]

GENEVA — As the tally of deaths from the worst known outbreak of the Ebola virus continued its seemingly inexorable rise, the World Health Organization said on Thursday that the epidemic was still accelerating and could afflict more than 20,000 people — almost seven times the current number of reported cases — before it could be brought under control.

The dire forecast was made as the W.H.O. reported that the number of known cases and fatalities had risen once again. The organization also acknowledged that in areas of intense transmission “the actual number of cases may be two-to-four times higher than that currently reported.”

The outbreak “continues to accelerate,” the organization said.

[IMR 4350]

Might also be to try and force them to storm the barricades.

Give them a reason to kill them.

Dead people can’t slip out and spread the disease.

[Black Agnes]

Either way. I look for most of the people in West Point to end up dead of one thing or another. I’d give even money on ‘someone’ starting an ‘accidental’ fire in there at some point.

Destroy evidence and contagion at once.

[IMR 4350]

Good point.

Fire is a very real possibility.

[Abathar]

"They forget the The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse; Conquest, War, Famine, and Death, ride together and that even the rich, the mighty, and the beautiful will face death and ruin in the chaos created by a pandemic."

They also fail to realize that their base of power is the ones who will die off first - the urban dependent class who can't survive more than a few days without every resource supplied to them now.

Can you just imagine trying to quarantine a city like LA, Chicago or Detroit?? This Ebola outbreak scares the living hell out of me simply because of how easy it will be to use as a deniable WMD by a rabid bunch of goat herders.

This must be a Jihadists dream come true, all they need is enough money for a few plane tickets, a willingness to die, and a map of every all-you-can-eat restaurants on the two coasts.

Make 911 look like a walk in the park...

[Bigg Red]

By George, I think you are right!

[Bigg Red]

Do you have any knowledge of the “death rituals” I have seen mentioned in many of the articles? The write-ups mention that the loved ones are becoming infected because everyone handles the corpse.

[RinaseaofDs]

I posted a mathematical analysis to the Smokin’ Joe and black agnes that shows within 18 days, there will be 1000 new cases of Ebola every minute. This is from the WHO reported data only, and does not take Congo into account.

I predicted we would have 3000 cases by 26AUG14 about four days ago based on the same data. We got their a day early.

Next 1000 (4000) we should cross within 7 calendar days.

Either of those two will likely ping you with it. Within 30 days, there will be 1000 new cases per second if the reporting trend remains the way it is today, and has been since 2APR14.

[Black Agnes]

They kiss the corpse goodbye and hold its hand and touch its face.

That’s all it takes to become infected.

[DannyTN]

I think the 20,000 is too low too. On 8/21, I estimated 10,000 in 30 days and 200,000 in 90 days. It's 9 days later and we are over 3000, with the WHO saying the numbers are underestimated. That's based on an exponential spread of a 5% increases in cases a day, which was what was being seen at the time. Nigeria suspected of understating their situation. It's spread to the Congo and Senegal apparently through edible game. 3 possible cases in the U.S. that the CNC is being secretive about.

Thread with my previous estimate post 3 and 4

What could interrupt the spread? Well the quarantines are a good start, but they aren't being applied in all areas, because the WHO are idiots. Stopping air travel would be a smart move, but so far only airlies seeking to protect their passengers have stopped flights, while the WHO encourages travel. The CNC finally yesterday admitted you can catch it just being within 3 feet of someone infected and that they are contagious before symptoms show up.

A vaccine could stop it. But the vaccine isn't being tested until September, and even if it works, how fast can they ramp production? They are talking about availability by the end of the year. That's 120 days.

If it's responsive to weather, kind of like the flu dies out when it warms up. That could stop it. But I haven't heard anything to that effect.

Things that could make the spread worse, reaching major population centers. People fleeing infected areas either because of fear of the disease, or because of hunger from the quarantines. Infected animals especially game crossing borders. People being afraid of the hospitals and risking infecting their families instead of seeking testing and help.

ZMapp might be able to head off some of those fears if they can produce it in quantity quickly enough.

I still think we are likely to reach the 200,000 mark by Nov 21.

[DannyTN]

Correction, its spread to the Congo through edible game and I’m not sure how Senegal got it.

The rapid mutation rate could render vaccines and/or zmapp ineffective. And is all the more reason to pull out every stop to quarantine this disease now.

Plus we don’t know how many cities/countries could be struggling with ebola and denying it because of the economic consequences of admitting they have it.