I think GOP can lose McConnell and still gain control of the Senate, but they need to address Mississippi and purge the a-holes inside their ranks that think conservatives and tea party folk are the enemy.
I agree with both of your points. If about 100,000 KY Conservatives/Tea Partiers (those folks McConnell hates and vowed to “crush”) stay home on Election Day, or just skip the Senate race on the ballot; put a fork in McConnell; he’s done. Guys like McConnell, Thad Cochran and Lindsey Graham, remind me of a thug husband who beats his wife on a regular basis but tells her he’s sorry when he wants sex.