This article states that a special ebola only hospital with 80 beds filled up in one day, with more patients being turned away before the day was even out. The author's conclusion that new cases are being badly underestimated tends to support my hypothesis that the rate of change in ebola infections/fatalities is still rising rapidly. But with no data I have not been able to graph the increase to see what kind of form it has (ie. arithmetic, geometric, exponential, etc.). Somebody knows this.
If the virus continues to spread, I believe that by next spring medical care providers will be forced to give up. The only thing to be done at that point is to shoot the infected and burn their bodies. Pretty gruesome stuff.
I’m not very good at statistics, so what I do is to keep a eye on the WHO numbers rather than the local reports with anecdotal information, unless of course there is a new outbreak area.
As I said some days ago, the death rate and the new infection rate had seemed to be stabilizing. I still hold that view.
It seems to me that based on the information early on, we saw a high number of new infections and a what appeared to be low number of deaths, (below 50%) initially, which actually led people to believe that the death rates would be lower than previous outbreaks, leading to other speculations as to the strain.
Over the days and weeks now that followed you see that death rate percentage increasing and following more closely the norms for this strain, (ebola Zaire).
To me, this indicates that the initial rush of new infections has stabilized and the death rate is tracking it as it should and increasing, which should mean that the new infection rate is slowing to match it.
I’m not trying to say it’s over, but it looks to me like the usual process of a slow burnout is beginning to occur. keeping in mind also that it is not in their best interests in terms of financial aid and NGO intervention to say that they feel good about the progress. Not the WHO or the local authorities.
So no, I do not now and never did see this outbreak as jumping the shark and blowing up as a worldwide pandemic.
Unless we see outbreaks traveling the length and breadth of Africa, I will continue to have that opinion.