Republicans Have More Reason Than Ever To Worry About Primary Challenges

FiveThirtyEight ^ | Nate Silver

[ObamahatesPACoal]

One of the most universal lessons of sports prediction is that margins matter. An NFL team that wins a number of games by less than a touchdown might get banner headlines for its clutch performance. But a team’s record in close games is mostly just luck. A football team that thrives on winning close games is likely to see its luck revert to the mean and start losing its fair share of them. The same is true in baseball, basketball and most other sports.

(SNIP)

In fact, the average share of the primary vote received by Republican incumbent senators so far this year is 73 percent. Not only is that lower than 2004 through 2008, when incumbents averaged 89 percent of the vote — it’s also lower than 2010 and 2012, the years when the tea party was supposedly in ascendency, when GOP incumbents got an average of 78 percent.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

Anyone establishment or amnesty connected is getting under 61%.

Only Mike Enzi and Risch were more dominant. Enzi was more trustworthy on immigration than Cheney and would have won by a large margin.

Jeff Sessions has no opponents at all.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

There’s also 23 or 24 Incumbent Republican Senators running in 2016.

[Seaplaner]

BTW, appeals to Dems only works in primaries.

[867V309]

This article is the truth. I am so tired of the whiners here who say the Republican party will never change, we are doomed.

The Dumbocraps are masters of incremental-ism. Foot-in-the-door kind of thing. They have worked relentlessly at least 40 years to destroy education, through federal programs and teacher's unions.

What I'm saying is, now that they have revealed themselves for what they really are, the tide can turn.

The tide cannot turn without an advocate for the other (conservative) side. Republicans have not done that, because they have been playing ball with their liberal friends in government, media and big business.

But the jig is up, and this article offers proof that the TEA party paradigm-shift is just getting started. Eventually we will hack up the Dumbocraps, RINOs, and lying POS media like a piece of bad meat.

Thank you, internet.

[fieldmarshaldj]

40 years ? The left has been aggressive at pushing their agenda and grabbing control of the Democrat Party since 1896 when they ran out the pro-business Conservative Bourbons represented by Grover Cleveland (the last good Dem President).

[867V309]

I appreciate your help in making my point and your knowledge of political history.

[hosepipe]

Republicans Have More Reason Than Ever To Worry About Primary Challenges

---

They SURE DO..... i.e. voter fraud..

In 2012 ALL CONSERVATIVE candidates were REJECTED quite harshly...
AND a KNOWN democrat collaborator was CHOSEN...

NOT ONLY a republican poseur BUT the very inventor of OBAMA-CARE..

[1010RD]

You’re right and I’ve got your number.

[ken5050]

The current meme inside the Beltway is that the GOP may win the Senate, but they'll lose it back to the Dems in 2016.

Bull...most of the GOP seats are pretty safe..and after another 2 years of Obama..well..

What I do think is that because of the conservative push in Republican primaries..you'll see a lot of GOP retirements before 2016..

[wildbill]

While not stating it explicitly, the article seems to imply that the GOP is fatally wounded by this internal dispute over the direction of the party. However, there are several possible scenarios that are positive for the GOP out of these contested primaries.
1. A reinvigorating of the basic principles of the party by virtue of the fact that incumbents have to respond to a large segment of their constituents who feel they have strayed into the’ inside the beltway’ mentality.
2. The development of a lot of new political players both as candidates and political operatives. Eventually the old warhorses of the party will have to retire and the party will turn to newly blooded and experienced candidates.
3 A corollary is that the candidates who clearly demonstrate incompetence or views that make them unelectable will be weeded out.
4. A realization among the tea party groups and members that wild-eyed revolution may not be the way to winning elections in the GOP where conservatism also means a sound and steady approach to politics.

[Jabba the Nutt]

"The Dumbocraps are masters of incremental-ism. Foot-in-the-door kind of thing. They have worked relentlessly at least 40 years to destroy education, through federal programs and teacher's unions."

And the elected GOP are "pragmatists" or "compromisers" and have done nothing to oppose, much less roll back creeping socialism. Bottom line, the GOP are socialists too, just at a slower pace.

Where am I wrong here?

[Hostage]

> “4. A realization among the **tea party** groups and members that **wild-eyed** revolution may not be the way to winning elections in the GOP where conservatism also means a sound and steady approach to politics.”

You have been drinking the Media’s Koolaid and it shows.

The Tea Party is not “wild-eyed”.

On the other hand you likely believe that ‘conservative’ John McCain’s push for amnesty is a “sound and steady approach to politics”?

[Balding_Eagle]

You’re right, and it’s nice to see it so succinctly laid out.