2014 Incumbent Senate Primary Season Over! A Look Ahead to the 2016 Group!

[cotton1706]

The Establishment got every one of their incumbents with challengers renominated, with these diminishing victory margins:

Cornyn and McConnell: 60%

Lindsey Graham: 56%

Cochran: 50% (with democrats)

Roberts: 48%

Alexander: 49%

Remember that both Chambliss and Johannes decided to retire this year. And given the terrible voting records of those up for reelection in 2016, I expect several retirements/open seats.

[cotton1706]

Lee (UT) - 2016 - 100% (Average) - 100% (Heritage) - 100% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)

Paul (KY) - 2016 - 97% (Average) - 96% (Heritage) - 97% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 100% (FreedomWorks)

Rubio (FL) - 2016 - 92% (Average) - 87% (Heritage) - 91% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)

Crapo (ID) - 2016 - 89% (Average) - 79% (Heritage) - 92% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 95% (FreedomWorks)

Coburn (OK) - 2016 - 88% (Average) - 81% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 100% (ACU) - 76% (FreedomWorks)

Johnson (WI) - 2016 - 87% (Average) - 89% (Heritage) - 87% (CFG) - 96% (ACU) - 77% (FreedomWorks)

Grassley (IA) - 2016 - 86% (Average) - 82% (Heritage) - 86% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 86% (FreedomWorks)

Toomey (PA) - 2016 - 85% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 93% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)

Vitter (LA) - 2016 - 81% (Average) - 75% (Heritage) - 78% (CFG) - 79% (ACU) - 91% (FreedomWorks)

Shelby (AL) - 2016 - 76% (Average) - 76% (Heritage) - 82% (CFG) - 76% (ACU) - 68% (FreedomWorks)

Coats (IN) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 70% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 83% (ACU) - 65% (FreedomWorks)

Thune (SD) - 2016 - 73% (Average) - 65% (Heritage) - 80% (CFG) - 88% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)

Moran (KS) - 2016 - 72% (Average) - 66% (Heritage) - 75% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)

Burr (NC) - 2016 - 70% (Average) - 62% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 84% (ACU) - 67% (FreedomWorks)

Boozman (AR) - 2016 - 69% (Average) - 71% (Heritage) - 70% (CFG) - 80% (ACU) - 55% (FreedomWorks)

Ayotte (NH) - 2016 - 67% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 79% (CFG) - 68% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)

Portman (OH) - 2016 - 64% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 64% (ACU) - 64% (FreedomWorks)

Blunt (MO) - 2016 - 59% (Average) - 57% (Heritage) - 67% (CFG) - 71% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)

Kirk (IL) - 2016 - 55% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 74% (CFG) - 44% (ACU) - 59% (FreedomWorks)

Isakson (GA) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 54% (Heritage) - 59% (CFG) - 54% (ACU) - 50% (FreedomWorks)

McCain (AZ) - 2016 - 54% (Average) - 43% (Heritage) - 71% (CFG) - 52% (ACU) - 48% (FreedomWorks)

Hoeven (ND) - 2016 - 51% (Average) - 44% (Heritage) - 58% (CFG) - 60% (ACU) - 41% (FreedomWorks)

Murkowski (AK) - 2016 - 41% (Average) - 36% (Heritage) - 52% (CFG) - 38% (ACU) - 36% (FreedomWorks)

[Will88]

Those are all weak showings for long standing incumbents, expecially anthing below 60%. If there had been better known and better financed primary challengers, four of them would have been defeated, and maybe all six.

But it’s tough to get well known individuals to challenge these entrenched incumbents.

[EagleUSA]

The electorate can blame NOBODY but themselves.

[cotton1706]

“But it’s tough to get well known individuals to challenge these entrenched incumbents.”

Unknowns getting 40%+ against well-known, established incumbents should change that!

[11th Commandment]

What is not reported is the TEA Party did very well in open senate seats. Sort of an Art of War thing, while the establishment spent money and time on incumbants, Tea Party had a sneak attack on open seats. The TEA Party went after six open seats and won in 5 (the "loss" was Oklahoma but the nominee isn't bad.) Summary below

		Open Seat	Retiree	GOP Nominee
	Republicans - 3 seats
		Georgia	Saxby Chambliss (70), 2 terms	David Purdue	Tea Party defeats establishment
		Nebraska	Mike Johanns (62), 1 term	Ben Sasse	Tea Party backed Cruz/Palin
		Oklahoma	Tom Coburn (65), 2 terms	James Lanford	Defeated Tea Party Backed T.W. Shanon
	Democrats - 5 seats
		Iowa	Tom Harkin (74), 5 terms	Joni Ernst	Tea Party
		Michigan	Carl Levin (79), 6 terms	Terri Land	Tea Party
		Montana	Max Baucus (71), 6 terms	Steve Daines	Tea Party from US HOUSE
		South Dakota	Tim Johnson (67), 3 terms	Mike Rounds	TEA Party was nuetral in race
		West Virginia	Jay Rockefeller (76), 5 terms	Shelley Moore Capito	Not typically supported by Tea/Conservatives- no Tea opposition

[cripplecreek]

Crowded primary races will save an incumbent every time.

[Zathras]

Now the GOP-e will see what we already know.

The Rats have been working behind the scenes to prop up weak GOP Senators to take them out in Nov.

I suspect we will loose 3 seats which should have been sure things.

All thanks to Rove and McCain.

[riverdawg]

Nice post. Another interesting thing about the Georgia Republican primary is that it effectively ended the political careers of three incumbent House members who were vying for the nomination: Jack Kingston, Phil Gingrey, and Paul Broun.

[Seattle Conservative]

Interesting. Are there Tea Party types for the Pubbie nominees to replace them?

[ObamahatesPACoal]

Pro amnesty Tillis (46% in primary) is probably going to lose due to third party vote and Hagan being all over the place on immigration.

Ayotte, McCain, Hoeven and Mark Kirk should be prime targets.

Scott Brown’s well funded campaign against Shaheen will be identical to the Tea Party attacking Ayotte.

[ObamahatesPACoal]

Conservatives DeMint(last time he ran), Inhofe, Scott and Risch got 80% or more.