Outbreak of Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone [CDC Update]

Centers for Disease Control ^ | July 31, 2014 | CDC

[Covenantor]

Using the laboratory confirmed ebola cases and deaths by my calculations the mortality rate is:

July 30. 826/953 = 86.67%

July 27. 729/909 = 80.19%

Please correct me if I've made false assumptions, but it sure seems that the death curve is rising. Keep in mind that the reported deaths are only three days apart.

[Black Agnes]

If these numbers are ‘on the ground’ numbers from West AFrica I have every reason to doubt them. Either way. No one really knows at this point how many infected/dead there are or may be or may have been.

IF the mortality rate has gone up that’s disturbing. And may be because people aren’t receiving medical care for any number of reasons. Overloaded hospitals, shortages of necessary drugs/supplies or anything you might imagine.

It may be that the earlier ‘happy’ mortality numbers reflected a disease that may go on longer than other strains have, delaying the ‘final’ diagnosis and flattening the morbidity curve relative to the mortality curve for a short time.

I’ll just reiterate the first part. It’s Africa, so who knows...

[Covenantor]

Understood and points taken, which is why I used the lab confirmed Ebola cases and found dead numbers. The hidden numbers in the “bush” are the current unknowns, the case not being much different than would be here in the midst of an outbreak.

At this moment those high numbers appear to be consistent with the previously published graph.

Perhaps a better term would be interim report. The final sorrowful tally will still only be a close approximation.

[Black Agnes]

Sadly you’re right.

We will likely never know the true number of victims. The upcoming social unrest due to the epidemic there will only add to the deaths.

[Covenantor]

Yikes!

Fastest update from WHO-Africa I’ve ever seen.

Last one was dated August 3, 2014 with data from 30 July 2014.

http://www.afro.who.int/en/clusters-a-programmes/dpc/epidemic-a-pandemic-alert-and-response/outbreak-news/4239-ebola-virus-disease-west-africa-4-august-2014.html

Disease update

New cases and deaths attributable to EVD continue to be reported by the Ministries of Health in the four West African countries of Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria and Sierra Leone.

Between 31 July and 1 August 2014, 163 new cases (laboratory-confirmed, probable, and suspect cases) of EVD and 61 deaths were reported from the four countries as follows: Guinea, 13 new cases and 12 deaths; Liberia, 77 new cases and 28 deaths; Nigeria, 1 cases and 0 deaths; Sierra Leone, 72 new cases and 21 deaths.

---

That’s 163 new Ebola cases and 63 more deaths.

[Black Agnes]

How frightening for West Africa.

And this is only a snapshot of where ebola was roughly 10d-2w ago. Who knows what the snapshot of where it is today will look like in that amount of time.

[Covenantor]

The one and only tiny, tiny bit of good news is that WHO, CDC and African goverments are not throttling or with holding release of news.

[trebb]

Perhaps the best way to describe my concerns is that while ebola is a spark, there is very little kindling here that could burst into fire. So many things go against there being a significant epidemic here that the odds are severely stacked against it.

Thanks for the stats. While I believe you are correct about it not being a real threat to spread across the globe, I also note that Murphy was an optimist......with some of the idiots we have running things around the globe, no telling what chaos they can wreak out of relative calm.

[yefragetuwrabrumuy]

In this case, because of Dr. Pianka, I would not rule out intentional malice. Remember that in speaking before a large assembly of scientists and graduate students in Texas, he said that a plague of pulmonary ebola wiping out 90% of humanity on Earth would be a good thing. To which proposal he got a standing ovation.

Pianka is a lizard expert, not an epidemiologist, so his choice of ebola as his murderous method is not a good one, because in its natural state it would not make an appreciable epidemic in most of the world. But at least some of his audience might have the skills to *improve* on ebola enough to make a pandemic of insane proportions.

However, they are egotists as well as elitists, so they would never dream of releasing such a plague on mankind unless they could protect themselves from it first.

Death for thee but not for me would be their philosophy.

Importantly Pianka and his peers are filled not with cold calculation in their desire to wipe out 90% of humanity. They want to do so as painfully as possible, because they are filled with contemptuous and burning *hate* of most of mankind. They do not just want them all to die, but to suffer anguishing and horrible deaths.

Such nice inhuman monsters.