Posted on 08/03/2014 5:48:32 AM PDT by Covenantor
Outbreak Update
The World Health Organization, in partnership with the Ministries of Health in Guinea, Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Nigeria announced a cumulative total of 1323 suspect and confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) and 729 deaths, as of July 27, 2014. Of the 1323 clinical cases, 909 cases have been laboratory confirmed for Ebola virus infection.
In Guinea, 460 cases, including 339 fatal cases and 336 laboratory confirmations of EVD, were reported by the Ministry of Health of Guinea and WHO as of July 27, 2014. Active surveillance continues in Conakry, Guéckédou, Boffa, Fria, Siguiri, and Kourourssa Districts.
In Sierra Leone, WHO and the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone reported a cumulative total of 533 suspect and confirmed cases of EHF as of July 27, 2014. Of these 533, 473 cases have been laboratory confirmed and 233 were fatal. Districts reporting clinical EVD patients include Kailahun, Kenema, Kambia, Port Loko, Bo and Western Area, which includes the capital, Freetown. More recently, Tonkolili, Bambali, Moyamba, and Bonthe Districts have also reported confirmed cases of EVD. Reports, investigations, and testing of suspect cases continue across the country.
As of July 27, 2014, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia and WHO reported 329 clinical cases of EVD, including 100 laboratory confirmations and 156 fatal cases. Suspect and confirmed cases since May have been reported from Lofa, Montserado, Margibi, and more recently, Bomi, Bong, Nimba and Grand Gedeh Counties. Laboratory testing is being conducted in Monrovia.
In Nigeria, WHO and the Nigerian Ministry of Health reported one probable case as of July 27, 2014. This case has not yet been laboratory confirmed. CDC is in regular communication with all of the Ministries of Health (MOH), WHO, MSF, and other partners regarding the outbreak. Currently CDC has personnel in all three countries assisting the respective MOHs and the WHO-led international response to this Ebola outbreak. Based on reports from the Ministry of Heath of Guinea, the Ministry of Health and Sanitation of Sierra Leone, the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Liberia, the Ministry of Health of Nigeria and WHO 29 July 2014.
...more info and links to previous updates at CDC site.
The CDC contagion model is exponential. The more infected the greater the acceleration of the contagion.
Note that this data is dated July 27, 2014, 8 days ago. We can expect updates sometime this week on the status of the 909 laboratory confirmed cases. Unless, as was the previous case in the Congo, there is a news clamp down. Anticipate a large number of deaths.
CDC sidebar note:
Genetic analysis of the virus indicates that it is closely related (97% identical) to variants of Ebola virus (species Zaire ebolavirus) identified earlier in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Gabon.
IIRC that 3% variance is about the same between humans and primates.
Could DDT have helped against this ? Just asking.
on 29 July 2014, the National IHR Focal Point for Nigeria confirmed that the probable EVD case notified to WHO on 27 July 2014 was symptomatic at the time of arrival in Nigeria and that 59 contacts (15 from among the airport staff and 44 from the hospital) have been identified so far. The report also confirms that the patient travelled by air and arrived in Lagos, Nigeria, on 20 July via Lomé, Togo, and Accra, Ghana.
The sample from this case is yet to be sent to the WHO Collaborating Centre at the Institute Pasteur in Dakar, Senegal, due to refusal by courier companies to transport this sample.
Though only one probable case has been detected so far in Nigeria, Ebola virus infection in this country represents a significant development in the course of this outbreak.
Pandemic scare:
Aids, H1N1, Hantavirus, MERS, West Nile, Ebola, Chikungunya, Avian, Coronavirus, Small Pox, TB.
Geopolitical scare:
War on Terror, War on Drugs, Suitcase nukes, Bio-terror, EMP attack, Attack on Power grid.
Natural disaster scare:
Melting polar Ice, Solar flare, Asteroid impact, Increased cyclone activity, Drought, Global warming, Hole in the Ozone, Global Climate change, Acid Rain.
Think about it for a moment. None of these have ever amounted to much of anything. All of this is an effort to keep the masses off balance and in a state of fear. Easier to control folks when they are constantly fearful, then the gubbamint can always swoop in and save the day.
Indeed. That’s what makes the 900+ laboratory confirmed cases worrisome. I don’t think they have any where near the number of personnel necessary to effectively trace and track the 900 contacts. Easy when Ebola was in small villages, but now released in Africa’s urban hells...
Very doubtful as DDT is a pesticide that kills mosquito larvae. We're dealing with a virus currently believed to reside in animal hosts.
Nope. This is not spread by an insect vector.
It’s spread from reservoirs in animal populations, with the main reservoir probably being fruit bats. From them it intermittently spreads out into the wider animal population.
Humans can get it either from preparing or possibly eating meat from these animals, or from contact with body fluids of infected people. Given the symptoms of the disease, body fluids tend to be spread far and wide, particularly in the last stages.
So DDT is just irrelevant to the issue. Possibly something that would wipe out fruit bats would be effective. :)
From what I can tell from what I’ve read, once it overwhelms the system which doesn’t seem to take much because the number of care givers is small, all bets are off and there is no stopping it unless everyone quarantines themselves from contact with other people.
Even in developed countries that would be hard, not going to happen in undeveloped countries.
Ping...
Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.
The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.
So far the false positive rate is 100%.
At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.
*sigh* Such is life, and death...
Okay, so why is the Gubmint downplaying this one?
Importantly, the growth rate of ebola is *not* exponential, nor is it a Natural logarithm (’e’), or logarithmic.
Population growth is exponential, but only in an ideal environment. Ebola is handicapped in several ways, the first of which it is reliant on contamination.
“The potential for widespread Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) infections is considered low as the disease is only spread by direct contact with the secretions **from someone who has symptomatic disease** or contaminated objects. The quick onset of symptoms makes it easier to identify sick individuals and limits a person’s ability to spread the disease by traveling.”
There are many parallels with the pandemic of 1918 with influenza and most recently, the Venezuelan Equine Encephalitis outbreak of 1971. One was highly contagious and the other was vector driven. Zaire Ebola has shown it can be airborne irrespective of what the general publicity that is being offered.
An Ebola break-out in a large city will turn residential sky scrappers into death traps...
Ebola’s virus can live outside the body for days - - haunting elevator buttons, grocery cart handles and air conditioning duck work...
High density inner city neighborhoods will be epicenters of the slaughter. The CDC needs to STOP importing the Ebola virus in the bodies of it’s victims. It’s the wrong choice.
The only problem is they have been saying that the initial symptoms mimic a double handful of other maladies - it might be easy enough to have a number slip through unless all of those with any symptoms for a variety of maladies are treated as Ebola cases until proven different. One or two people slipping through the cracks can easily start a number of new hot spots.
This runs into a different problem for Ebola. From onset of symptoms and ability to infect others, to death is typically only 10 days.
“Signs and symptoms of Ebola usually begin abruptly with an influenza-like stage characterized by feeling tired, fever, headaches, and joint, muscle, and abdominal pain. Vomiting, diarrhea and loss of appetite are also common. Less common symptoms include: sore throat, chest pain, hiccups, shortness of breath and trouble swallowing.
“Skin manifestations may include a maculopapular rash (in about 50% of cases). Early symptoms of EVD may be similar to those of malaria, dengue fever, or other tropical fevers, before the disease progresses to the bleeding (hemorrhagic) phase.”
Importantly, from the 10 day symptoms to mortality, you need to subtract the bleeding and incapacitation days, as unless people congregate around them, and they do not receive any medical attention, they are far less likely to transmit the disease.
Then consider active medical pursuit and effort to isolate anyone who is infected, and there is a fairly small window for others to be infected, and yet escape medical quarantine.
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