Let’s remember one thing about Ukraine...
Crimea did not have a vote.
Imagine a scenario where Mexico invades southern California, the La Raza chairwoman Janet Margula declares herself the interim president of Alta California, and declares that she will hold a referendum on whether Alta California will leave the United States.
Every loyal American rejects the authority of La Raza to even hold such a referendum and refuses lend legitimacy to the invaders by participating in an illegal referendum.
La Raza wins with 97% of the “vote.”
That’s what happened in Crimea. Loyal Ukrainians were steamrolled by invaders and fifth columnists.
So, we might think that the USA has no stake in Ukraine, but I think All U.S. interests in Ukraine are INTANGIBLE — in other words, they are important not for the effect on U.S. interests today, but to the extent that we believe our actions can send messages that will affect the future.
How we act now, it is commonly believed, can signal to Moscow (or to Beijing, or to Tehran) how we are likely to respond to provocations to come. Our inaction will encourage their belligerence.
Secondly, whether we like it or not, we still have ALLIES in NATO and South Korea AND Japan. Unless you want us to dissolve these treaties and agreements, these countries LOOK UP and EXPECT (nay, still TRUST) to the USA to keep her word.
Allies such as Poland and the Baltic states are feeling particularly vulnerable at the moment. How America responds to its allies in Europe could be seen as a litmus test for how it would support Asia-Pacific allies in need.
And, With the downing of MH17 and the deaths of many passengers ( most of them citizens of our allies ), How America responds to its allies in Europe could be seen as a litmus test for how serious we are with our treaties.
Regional allies concerned with whether the U.S. still remains fully engaged to its alliance commitments should therefore favor strong U.S. reassurance measures in Europe.
If not, we ought to be honest with them and tell them that we plan to slowly move out of NATO as well and they ought to start thinking of building up their own defenses.
Finally, we should remember that we still live in this world and like or or not, TRADE, COMMERCE and other MUTUAL PARTNERSHIPS with countries worldwide are the norm.
Therefore. I don’t think it is realistic to say that what happens in Ukraine has NO BEARING on the USA.
What is happening in Ukraine also has serious global implications, including in the Asia-Pacific.
I am not saying that we should be military involved in Ukraine ( yes, no US troops ). But I am not ready to say that we should TOTALLY BE UNINVOLVED AT ALL.
Putin’s behavior in Ukraine, if left unpunished, will have an eroding impact on the international norms of state sovereignty and territorial integrity.
In the worst case it could even create a dangerous precedent, allowing other states to resort to similar justifications for invading its neighbors.
Beijing and North Korea and Iran are closely watching how the Ukraine crisis will unfold.
If say, China concludes that the American response to Putin’s aggression is too weak, it may well seek to test the U.S. resolve in Asia.
For neighbors of China (HUGE trade partners of America all), this ought to be a worrisome prospect. It is therefore crucial that the United States is serious about applying real “costs” to Russian behavior. This also requires building a strong coalition of like minded states to send a strong political message that Russia’s behavior in Ukraine is unacceptable.
We might not be interested in getting involved, but eventually not getting involved will come back to bite us.
That’s the way I see it.
Here's a little dose of reality... During the Cold War, the United States was trained and equipped to project, fight and win two and a half "Major Regional Contingencies" simultaneously -- as in the Soviets, Red China and the Middle East. And we had the manpower, hardware and economic power to pull it off. Then the Soviets collapsed and we thought we'd write the next century's history by ourselves, so we spent the "peace dividend" and all of our tomorrows on welfare and corruption. Oh, yeah -- and we added twelve new treaty members to NATO.
Today, all we can handle is the "one half" MRC, and that has stretched our current sealift, airlift, and ground forces and has sapped our treasury, equipment, and national will over two decades of fruitless halfhearted war. The bar is now more crowded and thirsty than ever, but we are out of Schlitz.