Q2 is partly a carryover from delayed spending in Q1. That Q1 shrank is a tragedy and one caused by Democratic policies...
You may be right; what we know for sure is that Q1 was revised up to -2.1 so the average of the first 1/2 of 2014 was just under 1%. We'll see how Q2 gets revised and if it makes the average negative, but no matter what we should never underestimate the economic power of the American People.
Amen.
In a new research note, First Trust economists Bob Stein and Brian Wesbury engage in a bit of economic mythbusting. In the June jobs report, according to the Household Survey, part-time jobs increased by 799,000 out of total job gains of 407,000. That means full-time jobs fell. And that led to lots of hysterical headlines and analysis about part-time America. But it simply isnt true. Stein and Wesbury:
The problem is that monthly employment statistics, especially from the household survey, are incredibly volatile. For example, just two months earlier, in April, part-time jobs were down 398,000 while full-time jobs were up 412,000! In other words, please be careful when playing with these statistics.
[Indeed], most jobs added in this recovery have been full-time jobs. In 2013 alone, 1.5 million full-time jobs were added while 188,000 part-time jobs were lost.
June was what statisticians call an outlier. If we look at the first five months of 2014, January through May, total jobs rose 1.23 million, while part-time jobs fell 153,000. And, during the twelve months ending in June, total jobs are up 2.15 million, with only 10,000 of them being part-time.
In other words, focusing solely on June data is a misdirection. According to Bureau of Labor Statistics data, total part-time jobs were 19.2% of all jobs in June 2014. Back in 2009, total part-time jobs averaged 19.5% of all jobs.
And, just to be clear, we do believe that Obamacare and other regulatory actions, higher taxes and more government spending in the past decade have created a less dynamic economy and more part-time jobs. We just dont agree with spinning one months worth of data into an entire world view. Its not appropriate, its a misuse of data and its probably politically motivated rather than any attempt to get a handle on the real economy.
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