Posted on 07/23/2014 6:45:22 AM PDT by cotton1706
When writing about politics, it's all too frequent to use terminology that often obscures more than elucidates. That's especially true when it comes to the word "wave"—shorthand for a landslide victory for the winning party. I've argued before that the likelihood of 2014 being a wave election has been rising, given the president's consistently low approval ratings and the fact that Republicans are running evenly on the generic ballot (which usually translates into a clear GOP edge) and that the right-track/wrong-track numbers are near historic lows. All these big-picture signs are ominous for the party in power.
But this week, The New York Times' Nate Cohn argued that the threat of a Republican wave is subsiding, thanks to red-state Senate Democrats remaining resilient and the declining risk of blue-state seats—such as those in Oregon and Virginia—flipping in a landslide. This, despite the various political forecasters and Senate models (including the NYT's own Upshot) showing the likelihood of a Republican takeover increasing over time, with more states emerging in play.
What gives?
To be fair, a lot of the disagreement stems from semantics—the definition of the word "wave." Cohn argues that if Republicans merely sweep red-state Democratic seats and perhaps pick off a stray swing seat, it's not a wave election—even if Republicans net seven seats on their way to the majority. To accomplish that feat, Republicans would need to oust four sitting Democratic senators. Over the last decade, Republicans have defeated only three sitting senators (Tom Daschle in South Dakota, Russ Feingold in Wisconsin, and Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas).
(Excerpt) Read more at nationaljournal.com ...
Not rocket science here.
The party out of power usually makes gains in midterm elections.
This is especially pronounced in the 6th year of an incumbent administration if you examine the historical patterns.
The Dems are especially vulnerable this year defending US Senate seats in states carried by McCain and MR, states where BHO’s poll ratings are even lower than average.
Also, in terms of demographics, midterm elections tend to be more favorable to the GOP than is usually the case in presidential elections.
Open borders and the Central American flood of illegals and phoney refugees////////
Will this be the bridge too far that finally wakes up the American people?
Lets hope so!
In the words of Theodoric of York, "Nah!"
Today in the Washington ComPost, there is an article refuting Nate Kohn’s crappy wishful thinking from the NY Slimes. Too early to tell, but right now looks like a modest pickup. However, I never underestimate the GOP’s ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
What has the GOP done to deserve to win?
Don’t underestimate the anger of the GOP base in the aftermath of Mississippi.
Not one single GOP congressman or senator voted for Obamacare or Dodd-Frank.
There is a starting point.
Nothing in life is perfect, least of all politics.
Only because they knew it had the votes anyway....I suspect if they needed more Republican votes to pass it, some of them would have gone along.
So....what should we do?
Vote for the Dems?
Stay at home?
Throw votes away on third party candidates (effectively the same as voting Dem)?
Here in CA I have always voted the straight GOP ticket without exception and never regretted it. Sure we have the usual contests of moderates and conservatives competing in the primaries. But the Dems in my state, without exception, are ALL Marxists.
The choice is easy.
Will not be surprised if their is a big wave midterms.
The items you cite in part explain why Obama is fundraising so obsessively. Someone tipped him off that Nov. might well be the mother of all losses for Dems. Worse, from his POV, he might finally be blamed. So he is frenetically, frantically trying to raise sufficient cash to avert such a Dem. catastrophe.
His biggest problem is that he looks more and more like a loser. Given the various scandals here & the rising global unrest, it’s not going to get better. Evidently the donors are still willing to shell out, but rank and file voters are getting sick of Obama, his golfing & vacationing, & his incompetence. Nov. will likely be as bad as they fear.
Freepers have been saying this for a while.
Exactly.
Sure, we want the senate and we want Reid dispatched to the cooler, but seriously I am very concerned about who it is that wins on the Republican side. More Establishment goons is simply not much of a victory.
This Uni-Party thing looks real to me and the Establishment has defined “treacherous”, as Mississippi proved.
The next generation of younger conservatives may find themselves extinct if our culture and schools are not taken back, and soon.
All the immigrant “children” will be overrunning schools this Fall. Should have some impact in getting out the vote.
Agree.
The MS debacle left a bad taste in many GOP voters' mouths, including my own.
If McDaniels gets his day in court and prevails, I could see a possible 'wave' election, as the base will be fired up. If not, there are still a lot of pi$$ed-off voters who may just stay home rather than vote for the proverbial 'lesser of 2 evils'. And not just in Mississippi, either.
+1
As the saying goes, the perfect is the enemy of the good. Let's get a GOP Senate and then hold their feet to the fire. Do people really want Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi in power?
What difference does it make, even when the Republicans controlled the House and Senate, the Democrats were still calling the shots.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.