Fed Appeals trumps circuit all day
The Court of Appeals for the Fourth Judicial Circuit stands on the same level as The Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. One does not trump the other. The three levels of the Federal Judiciary are: District Courts, Courts of Appeals (one for each Judicial Circuit, and The Supreme Court.
However, the DC circuit is given special consideration.
That aside, I think it will turn on who was to provide the subsidy for the state exchanges. If it was supposed to be a state contribution to ObamaCare, then some states would get the same benefit with zero cost. That sounds good to those states, but it isn’t equal treatment of all the states. If New York has to put out money and Texas doesn’t, but they both get the same benefit, then there is a problem.
John Roberts will choose that the Fed pays all subsidies in order to save ObamaCare.
If the Fed is already paying the state exchange subsidies, then I think they have a good case for saying they intended the Fed to pay all subsidies anyway. John Roberts will endorse that.
Either way, this will get saved by John Roberts.