[Hebrews 11:6]

If Hitler had ignored Russia altogether and concentrated instead on Africa, England, etc., how likely is it that Stalin would have taken advantage of Germany's preoccupation to launch his own strike against Germany or German interests?

If Hitler thought a Russian attack was likely, then might not the supposed inevitability of war with Russia suggest to him that he might as well get in the first strike and attempt to defeat Russia before it mobilized fully?

[dfwgator]

All indications were that by 1943-1944, Stalin was prepared to launch an offensive attack. That’s why he was so desperate to buy as much time as he could and not try to do anything to provoke the Germans.

[AU72]

how likely is it that Stalin would have taken advantage of Germany's preoccupation to launch his own strike against Germany or German interests

Stalin had calculated with the pact to carve Poland Hitler would not be ready to attack the SU until 1942 which worked for Stalin since he had decimated his officer corp. That's why he refused to believe the reports of the massive build up of forces on his western borders in 1941.