Or, had they attacked Siberia AFTER Stalin moved the forces, they would have made significant gains in Russia.
That became a dead letter once negotiations with the US over withdrawl from China ended and the US instituted the oil embargo that forced Japan to move south for the oil fields.
What if Japan agreed to withdraw to Manchuria and with no oil embargo used those troops to move into Siberia? Stalin only started to re-deploy his Siberian armies when his crack spy in Tokyo told him in September that the Soviet Union was no longer a target.