Assuming the EIA was correct after reporting that U.S. oil production would reach 9.6 million barrels per day in 2019 (for now, let’s give them the benefit of the doubt), our daily output would increase by about 1.6 million barrels per day over the next five years. Needless to say, nearly all of this would come from tight oil production in the lower-48 states.
Unfortunately, that amount is far from fully replacing the 7.2 million barrels of crude oil we currently import every day.
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Didn’t we see an article that said that most of the new drilling in the USA right now is being done in the Permian basin. My bet is that the EIA estimate of domestic production increases flattening out is based on production from the Baaken and the Eagle Ford. Which may be true. However, based on the tight oil reserves in the Baaken and the very large drilling increases in the Permian — its a safe bet that permian production increase curve is going to get steeper. I think the permian could produce 5 million barrels @ day. But that’s still not enough to make up for 7.2 million barrel deficit. I also think that the Tuscaloosa lime formation could produce 1 million barrels a day by 2019 but again that’s still not enough to kill all imports.
7.2 million barrels may be too high a bar. The US may never attain oil independence based on production gains alone.