It looks like they will place first in the European Parliament elections, where their performance is always strongest. Seats are awarded proportionally. That’s terrific.
Unfortunately it doesn’t mean much for the next Westminster election, where they could place third ahead of the Lib Dems yet win very few or even zero seats. Their rise in the polls makes me think that maybe I should’ve wanted that instant-runoff voting thing to pass.
They have a line on one seat at least
A recent poll taken in the Lib Dem held seat of Eastleigh (which had a special election last year where UKIP beat out the Tories for 2nd and the Lib Dem won with a paltry 32%) shows:
UKIP 32% CON 28% Lib 27% Lab 12%