Posted on 05/11/2014 6:59:26 PM PDT by blam
Why the Stock Market Could Rise 74% in the Next Three Years
May 11, 2014 GMT
By: Investment_U
Marc Lichtenfeld writes: We had a bit of a scare in the markets last month. At one point, the S&P 500 fell more than 4%, causing some permabears to proudly proclaim that the "bubble" had burst.
Of course, they're not quite so vocal now that the market has rebounded and is back within 1% of its all-time high.
As you know, we're not market timers at Investment U and The Oxford Club. But I believe this market has a long way to run before the bulls stop making money.
Market History
Although this bull market is getting mature, it is not ready for the rocking chair. The bull has now been around for 63 months. That's longer than nine of the 15 bull markets since 1871.
Surprisingly, though, it still has five more months to go until it is average in terms of length - and 41 months before it reaches the post-World War II average.
Bull markets have been getting longer since the end of the War - a lot longer. Starting with the bull that began in 1949, bull markets have lasted an average of 104 months - or nearly nine years. That five-year old bull doesn't sound quite so old now, does it? Of the seven bull markets (including the current one) since then, this one ranks only fifth in terms of length.
From the low in 2009 at 666.79, to the all-time high of 1,897.28, the S&P 500 has risen 185% - a heck of a move. That's above the 163% average since 1871. However, the modern bull market (since the end of WWII) has averaged 259% gains.
Interestingly, three bull markets gained less than 100% while the other three were up 391%, 414% and 516%, respectively. Could the fact that the current one broke through the 100% barrier mean that it's headed significantly higher?
If the market simply performed according to the average modern day bull market, it would last another 3 1/2 years and rise 74%.
(snip)
You make a strong point with no substance..... where have you put the money you pulled out of stocks?
We are in unprecedented times financially. How can any prediction based on past data have any meaning?
It's ACTUALLY called 'inflation'.
All I know is what I see in the grocery store - and what I see in the grocery store says that Federal Inflation figures are bunk.
Interesting.
Gambling advice.
Do you understand that trade deficits are imaginary.
I disagree with you, strongly.
America needs to make stuff. Bring back American manufacturing now.
Stop importing everything from everywhere else.
Bring back jobs.
49 to 68 were real bull markets.
The others were just bubbles.
Every day water comes from the well, until it doesn’t.
Maybe, but if a robot can make it, they won't be paying some mill-RAT $45 an hour.
Stop importing everything from everywhere else.
Stop importing oil from everywhere else, employ thousands of US citizens in the energy sector.
Make our biggest export illegal aliens.
Thanks.
Just bumping your post.
We really need to do something to even out, the very uneven situation currently between ourselves, and China.
Much appreciated.
I agree. We need to make stuff. We need to stop importing everything from everywhere else. And we need to bring back jobs.
What would you like to manufacture? I have several items I would like to manufacture and market here. The item details are not yet important, but the process is.
I need to put together a thorough business plan in order to obtain financing for plant and equipment, materials, qualified labor, warehousing, distribution, marketing, and a few other minor details that escaped my initial flash of inspiration.
The lending group looks at my projected sales, projected revenues from sales, then they look at my projected production costs, and they laugh.
They look at my list of projected requirements for qualified human resources, and they laugh some more.
They look at the (mostly blank) environmental impact studies, the non-existent allocation of funds for union payoffs; bribes to various county, state, and federal agencies, for permission to do business in the USA; the omitted allocations for massive administrative and accounting functions; and they laugh some more.
Actually, by now, they are rolling on the floor, blowing coffee out their noses. And they still haven't looked at my brilliant marketing and distribution plans.
So, what is it that you want to manufacture here?
Do you purchase goods and/or services from others or do you make/serve everything totally by yourself?
There have already been signs of cracks in their centrally-planned, many times over-built/over-subsidized economy, much of which is being done for perception over substance. Even with their lack of transparency(thanks to a state controlled media, one which ours is trying to emulate)success for a few will lead to greed/jealousy, followed by the usual corruption to retain power, and then much of that will find it's way to gov. officials. Someone will push it too far and they'll be exposed for the leeches they are...and all hell will break loose.
In the information age it will be hard to keep it from the masses there, many of whom still don't have a pot to piss in. For every 1 buying million dollar homes in Irvine, CA. there are a 1000000 back home working for a bowl of rice.
Maybe we can send over our chieftains of America's labor unions, community agitators, occupy Wall St., Arianna Huff 'n'puff and the like to organize the 99% in China?
It probably wouldn't work, but seeing Richard Trumka, Jon Leibowitz, the demorat party hierarchy and their multimillionaire media/follywood hypocrites standing in front of a tank...(and the aftermath)...might be good for a few laughs.
Still, if China's economy does become the dominant economy of the world(at least in the short term)there will be plenty of blame to go around where America's failures are concerned...
(gov. controlled education system, too much phony emphasis on diversity/tolerance/multiculturalism, laziness, stupidity, breakdown of family/community, dismissing faith, hollywood brainf$#@ing....)
...those may trump our own cesspool of greed/cronyism/corruption, all of which are weakening our standing in the world.
America needs to make stuff. Like corn? shoes? What stuff?
“Make” corn?
Come on now.
America needs to produce goods once again. Badly. We are being completely obliterated in trade right now, and our own companies are participating.
Bring back American manufacturing.
Define goods. Should we make toothpicks, shoes, eyeglasses?
Yes.
Our economy currently sends production elsewhere.
This wasn’t always the case. America used to make everything right here in America.
For the last generation, we have been sending all sorts of jobs all over the world, many to China.
This results in our economy shrinking. Our economy really needs to bring back jobs, to America.
So yes.
We should make toothpicks, shoes and eyeglasses.
And computers.
And phones. And everything else. Bring back US jobs.
Listen to how you define the problem, it is as if there is a central planner ordering production offshore. That isn't the case, at least not completely.
Government policy on regulations and taxation drives businesses to find the best "location" to produce. Sadly, that is often offshore. So step one is to reduce both regulation and taxation of productivity, but you've never advocated that.
Somehow you imagine that by fiat business can be ordered to produce what it is uneconomical to produce. See North Korea, Venezuela and California for examples of why that doesn't work.
Ask yourself: Why don't I produce everything I need myself? You'll be on your way to discovering comparative and absolute advantage.
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