Thoughtful post, but unfortunately most likely wrong on one important point. Although polling - esp in a country like Ukraine - must be taken with a large pinch of salt, most polls indicated that by the late autumn 2013 the support for the EU treaty had waned, and there was roughly the same support for the Russian customs union as for the EU treaty. But more
Importantly was the large difference in preferences between the western and central parts of Ukraine compared to the southern and eastern districts. That was not surprising given the different histories of these areas. However, the real reason for the different choices may just as well have been economical. The effects of the EU treaty was going to be different for the different areas even if an agreement could have been made with Russia. Thus, a policy that forced Ukraine to chose between Russia and the West was bound to cause severe tensions within
the country. When those tensions brought some of the more extreme forces to the power (in Kiev and in the eastern Ukraine) we had a receipe for disaster. Ukraine may turn into a second Yugoslavia - but this time on the border of Russia. It is quite likely that up until yesterday the large majority of the Ukrainian people wanted their nation to remain intact. Possibly some areas wanted more autonomy, but in all likelihood still be part of Ukraine. But if the latest news are true, will that still be so tomorrow?
Which side do you think wants these elections to go forward most? I think it is safe to say the ethnic Ukranian side. A quick look at Wikipedia shows that over 75% of Ukrainians are of ethnic Ukrainian decent. Only 17.3% are of Russian ethnicity. And the Russian's actions of late have almost certainly hardened the opinion of ethnic Ukranians to look to the West. Putin may have grabbed the Crimea, but my guess is he's lost ethnic Ukranians for perhaps generations.
As to your other points, I really wouldn't mind too terribly if the solidly ethnic Russian areas were allowed to vote to secede and join Russia. Maybe that is what it would take to resolve this, but make no mistake the result would be the permanent loss to Russia of most of it's "Ukranian buffer zone" - at least until they invade it again (which is precisely why the remainder of Ukraine would immediately try to join NATO and the EU with renewed vigor). Perhaps a few areas would even go with the Russians, but my feeling is that support for joining Russia is vastly overstated even in the most Eastern regions. Don't think a lot of this separatist activity isn't being engineered by Russian operatives, special forces, coordination, etc.
Look, the Russians have their own interests. I don't blame them for that. China has its own interests too, as do all nations. My biggest gripe is with this naive idiot we have in the White House who thought he was the golden (err, half black) boy who could just talk his way into everyone loving us. This kumbaya garbage just doesn't work.
Putin, in my view, has played a masterful hand so far with poor cards. Russia isn't that strong, and most of its army is 3rd world rabble (albeit with some great equipment they can't afford to maintain properly or train enough with). He can't project power in any meaningful way and his economy isn't that strong. While it may not appear that way now, Putin has taken his country backward in the long run. Whatever "democracy" was taking root has been nearly wiped out, there is no longer any free press, dissent has been squashed almost entirely - none of this is good for the Russian people in the long term. Perhaps Putin knows this and believes the one thing he can do is seize territory and rebuild the old empire, then try to run with the China model of allowing free markets with no political freedom.