The greatest possible threat of war between Russia and a NATO member is actually Turkey, which is threatening to close the Straits of Bosphorus to Russia.
Putin wants no part of Turkey. That won’t be happening. Turkey has a credible military and Putin’s MO is to attack weak countries who can’t fight back. Erdogan made one phone call and shut Putin down.
YOu say that, and yet Turkey has for now backed down on its threat to close the Straits of Bosphorus. Russia wants no war with Turkey, but if the Straits were to be closed, that would be an Act of War by Turkey against Russia, and Russia would be forced to open them.