I think the analysis is very straightforward, although the assumptions may be challenged. The time difference between the timestamp indicating when the message was transmitted and received would allow one to make a reasonable estimate of the distance between satellite and the aircraft. (300 meters of distance error for every microsecond of timing error.) This would constrain the aircraft to be somewhere on a sphere centered on the satellite. One might also assume that the aircraft is near the surface of the earth. Make an assumption about altitude as a starting point. The intersection of the two spheres, the one centered on the earth and one centered on the satellite would constrain the location of the aircraft to a circle on the globe. The sensitivity of the latitude and longitude points to assumptions about altitude *is tolerably* small.
You can now add further constrains: Distance from last known radar fix, since the aircraft flies at a finite speed, which would determine the maximum (But not the minimum) distance from last known location. We know that the aircraft was somewhere on a circle on the globe formed by the intersecting spheres and it was inside the circle formed by the maximum distance from the last radar fix.
Since there was more than one update, one can make a series of location circles of different radius on the globe, all centered on the satellite’s geographic location at 0 North, 64 East, each valid at different times. In addition one can use the Doppler shift of the signal (if available) to make an estimate of the component of the aircraft’s velocity along the line of sight to the satellite. If one assumes that the aircraft’s velocity and heading remain unchanged over the period of observations (after the last maneuver) there are probably only two great circle trajectories that fit the observations. The Northern path is ruled out because it flies into to much radar coverage not to be seen, leaving only the southern path. If all the observations: time delay and Doppler, fit this trajectory it is *very likely* that this is the actual trajectory. If the observations do not fit a constant bearing, constant heading (i.e. great circle) then it unlikely that this is the actual trajectory, but the constraints at the times of observations still apply. I assume that the observations fit a constant bearing, constant course, and that is the most likely hypothesis.
Really very simple, don’t you think?
It sounds like the cabin crew was disabled, possibly by a cabin fire, turned towards an emergency airfield, lost consciousness and the zombie plane flew on autopilot until it ran out of fuel.
Alternately, it was swallered by black hole, taken to an Iranian base on the Antarctic and the passengers converted into sex slaves.
“The Northern path is ruled out because it flies into to much radar coverage not to be seen, leaving only the southern path.”
There was an article in the Times of India a couple weeks back that said that India’s defense radar was inoperative along the eastern coast. This basically leaves Bangladesh or Myanmar, and we have heard zip about their radar capabilities or lack of capabilities. So the northern route was ruled out because of an assumption. Of course, everything that is publically known has layer upon layer of assumptions. Even the doppler model taking it south is based on assumptions according to the people who devised it.