Nate Silver's new Senate forecast could terrify Democrats into action

Yahoo/Christian Science Monitor ^ | 3-23-14 | Mark Sappenfield

[kingattax]

Polling expert Nate Silver has come out with a new forecast: Republicans are currently favorites to take control of the Senate this fall. That prediction could open Democratic wallets.

Nate Silver, the political prognosticator pilloried by Republicans for correctly predicting President Obama's convincing victory in 2012, has perhaps just given the GOP another reason to curse him.

He has predicted that Republicans are better than even odds to take back the Senate this November.

At first blush, that might seem like something for Republicans to celebrate. Control of the Senate is the Grand Prize up for grabs in this fall's midterm elections. Few doubt that Republicans will hold on to the House, and most also acknowledge that Republicans are likely to cut into the Democrats' 55-to-45 majority in the Senate. (There are actually only 53 Senate Democrats, but both Senate Independents side with the Democrats.)

The burning question is whether that Republicans will win enough seats to become the majority. And now Mr. Silver, the web's foremost political polling analyst and the very man who refused to give Mitt Romney much electoral love two years ago, has suggested on his FiveThirtyEight blog that "Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six seats and capture the chamber."

[nickcarraway]

Cornyn must be terrified.

[MarMema]

Yes, Yes!! This is so exciting. I am loving it.

[Catsrus]

Not if those Republicans are RINOs - we need conservatives to take these seats. Don’t you just love that there are 2 Independents in the Senate who vote with the Democrats? They aren’t Independent at all - just DEMS who are hiding behind a facade.

[MarMema]

Hmm, that really stinks. Did they have a green label by any chance?

[LostPassword]

It would be nice if the action was talking more to (and down to) voters about dem positions since it helps republicans every time a dem says what they think.

Unfortunately I’d guess the actions they are stepping up include scanning obituaries and fighting voter ID laws.

[ncalburt]

i dont believe a vowel published by Gay leftist radical and former Daily Koz employee Natey who usually just astroturfs
for Barry and the DNC

[MrB]

If they win the majority, they’ll still refuse to act like a majority.

[Mack the knife]

One of the Fox commentators quipped tonight that the Democrats are absolutely terrified about the prediction that the GOP will take the Senate because:
1) they suspect it is true; and
2) there is nothing they can do about it.

The GOP voters are enthused enough to turn out and vote. In order for the Democrats to get their base and the Independents enthused, they have to either:
a) turn on their base by embracing Obama and Obamacare -— which will turn off the Independents; or
b) turn against Obamacare, which will recapture the Independents, but turn off their left base.

I hope this analysis is true.