GOP Field Hasn’t Been This Split in 40 Years

Five Thirty Eight ^ | 03/21/2014 | HARRY ENTEN

[SeekAndFind]

The George Washington Bridge scandal has subtly reshaped the contest for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination, hurting New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie’s chances and leaving the field without a clear front-runner. The pack is now huddled in the low teens, according to polls of GOP voters.

How rare is such an evenly divided field? I checked polling since 1976, the first year in which both the Republican and Democratic nominations were decided completely by voters and not by party leaders.

It’s rare.

In surveys conducted from January through March of the preceding midterm election year (so for the 2012 election, we’re looking at polls from Jan. 1 through March 31 of 2010), the Republican atop the polls has always averaged at least 23 percent of the vote.

But not this year. Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas and a presidential aspirant in 2008, leads current polling with 14.8 percent. Even if we include Democratic nomination contests, 14.8 percent basically ties for the lowest leader on record (right near the 15 percent Mario Cuomo had in 1992).

The table below shows the top five potential candidates by election year according to polling averages from the first three months of the preceding midterm year. Some candidates were only included in some of the nomination polls conducted during that period. (For some early years, we have only one or two polls. The years left blank for either party represent cycles when there was no polling data.)

	GOP candidate	Incl./ Tot. Polls	Avg.	DEM candidate	Incl./ Tot. Polls	Avg.
1976	Gerald Ford	(1/1)	24.0	Ted Kennedy	(2/2)	31.5
	Ronald Reagan	(1/1)	20.0	George Wallace	(2/2)	20.0
	Nelson Rockefeller	(1/1)	18.0	Henry Jackson	(2/2)	12.0
	John Connally	(1/1)	9.0	Edmund Muskie	(2/2)	9.0
	Charles Percy	(1/1)	8.0	George McGovern	(2/2)	6.0
1980	Ronald Reagan	(1/1)	45.0	Ted Kennedy	(1/1)	36.0
	Gerald Ford	(1/1)	35.0	Jimmy Carter	(1/1)	29.0
	Howard Baker	(1/1)	7.0	Jerry Brown	(1/1)	12.0
	John Connally	(1/1)	5.0	Walter Mondale	(1/1)	8.0
	George Bush / Bob Dole	(1/1)	2.0	Henry Jackson	(1/1)	5.0
1984				Ted Kennedy	(1/1)	32.0
				Walter Mondale	(1/1)	20.0
				John Glenn	(1/1)	13.0
				Jerry Brown	(1/1)	7.0
				Robert Byrd	(1/1)	5.0
1988	George H.W. Bush	(2/2)	31.0	Gary Hart	(2/2)	32.1
	Bob Dole	(2/2)	12.5	Mario Cuomo	(2/2)	14.8
	Howard Baker	(2/2)	11.9	Lee Iacocca	(2/2)	13.0
	Alexander Haig	(2/2)	6.2	Jesse Jackson	(2/2)	6.7
	Jack Kemp	(2/2)	5.0	Bill Bradley	(2/2)	6.0
1992	George H.W. Bush	(1/1)	65.0	Mario Cuomo	(1/1)	15.0
	Bob Dole	(1/1)	7.0	Michael Dukakis	(1/1)	13.0
	Liz Dole	(1/1)	4.0	Jesse Jackson	(1/1)	14.0
	Dan Quayle	(1/1)	5.0	Llloyd Bentsen	(1/1)	9.0
	Jack Kemp	(1/1)	4.0	Gary Hart / Bill Bradley	(1/1)	4.0
1996	Bob Dole	(2/2)	24.5
	Jack Kemp	(2/2)	14.5
	Ross Perot	(1/2)	12.0
	Dan Quayle	(2/2)	9.5
	Dick Cheney	(2/2)	8.5
2000	George W. Bush	(3/3)	23.3	Al Gore	(1/1)	45.0
	Colin Powell	(1/3)	16.0	Bill Bradley	(1/1)	14.0
	Liz Dole	(3/3)	12.0	Dick Gephardt	(1/1)	8.0
	Jack Kemp	(3/3)	8.3	Bob Kerrey	(1/1)	4.0
	Steve Forbes	(3/3)	7.0
2004				Al Gore	(8/8)	29.6
				Hillary Clinton	(5/8)	17.8
				Joe Lieberman	(7/8)	8.1
				Tom Daschle	(8/8)	7.6
				Bill Bradley	(5/8)	7.2
2008	Rudy Giuliani	(4/4)	26.5	Hillary Clinton		39.8
	John McCain	(4/4)	24.5	John Kerry		12.8
	Condi Rice	(1/4)	22.0	Al Gore		13.7
	Newt Gingrich	(3/4)	6.7	John Edwards		13.5
	Bill Frist	(4/4)	4.5	Joe Biden		5.0td>
2012	Mitt Romney	(4/4)	23.3
	Sarah Palin	(4/4)	17.5
	Mike Huckabee	(4/4)	15.8
	Newt Gingrich	(3/4)	8.0
	Ron Paul	(3/4)	7.0
2016	Mike Huckabee	(6/9)	14.8	Hillary Clinton	(5/5)	67.0
	Chris Christie	(9/9)	13.0	Joe Biden	(5/5)	10.2
	Jeb Bush	(9/9)	12.2	Liz Warren	(4/5)	6.8
	Rand Paul	(9/9)	11.1	Andrew Cuomo	(4/5)	3.0
	Paul Ryan	(9/9)	10.9	Cory Booker	(2/5)	2.5

While the GOP is more divided than usual this cycle, Democrats are more united. Hillary Clinton has 67 percent in the polls, more than the top five Republicans’ average support combined. Clinton is polling stronger than any contender in the modern era on either side, including incumbent presidents George H.W. Bush in 1992 and Jimmy Carter in 1980. For non-incumbents, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Al Gore in 2000, each with 45 percent support at this point, come closest to Clinton.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the difference between Huckabee and Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, who ranks fifth according to polls, is only 4 percentage points. That’s by far the most tightly packed the top five candidates have been in our sample. No other year has a first-to-fifth gap less than 10 points.

The difference between first and fifth on the Democratic side is 65 percentage points. That’s the widest gap on record.

Early polling doesn’t always predict how well a candidate will do. Rudy Giuliani was ahead at this time in the 2008 cycle, but he didn’t win a single primary. Even in years when the leader at this point in the cycle went on to win the nomination, the actual percentage earned by the winner didn’t match the early polling. Bob Dole in 1996 and George W. Bush in 2000 weren’t that far ahead at this point, and they won their primaries by a mile.

On the Democratic side, one look at the chart and you see that many eventual nominees (like Barack Obama in 2008) weren’t in the top five at this point — some weren’t even polled.

Polls conducted more than two years before a presidential election don’t tell us all that much about the eventual vote percentages. But they do tell us that the Democratic and Republican fields for 2016 each look very unusual at this point in the race. The Republican picture is unusually muddled, and the Democratic picture is unusually clear.

[Cyber Liberty]

I wonder how ‘12 would have been different if Romney had gotten clobbered in ‘08 instead of ‘12. I wonder which candidate could have gotten the nod, absent Romney’s destructive campaign.

Frankly, I don’t think anything could have helped in ‘08 because Bush’s liberal policies had made such a mess, while putting the GOP brand on it.

[Colonel_Flagg]

You should run for governor. I’d vote for you. :)

[ansel12]

I don’t know, but Romney is what destroyed us in 2008 and who lost to Jimmy Carter’s second term in 2012, and election that we could not lose.

Romney has always lost, but he always kept running because he had money, even in that single term he served he won with less than 50%, and then was driven out of office with 34% approval, so what did he do after being proven a political disaster? He spent 45 million dollars to promote himself up to dominating the national party and it’s presidential politics for the next 7 years.

[Finny]

Yer kiddin'! {^)

A decent governor would have gotten it right the first time:

There's an overwhelming probability that for Republicans and conservatives, 2016 will look very much like 2012: a contest between Uniparty colleagues, both wanting to apply government force in areas moral (forced acceptance of the gay agenda & abortion), personal (medical/health), and "scientific" (the environmentalist power grab of energy and food production).

[Colonel_Flagg]

Yer kiddin'! {^)

I ain't got time to kid. So to speak. LOL

[LurkedLongEnough]

I agree with your conclusions, but think it is much more urgent to put right-headed locals in local government across our respective territories in 2014; most importantly, governors.

2016 is a challenge that only God can meet with our earthly support, whatever it shapes up to be.

Oh and another thing. Speak freely and be unafraid.

[Sir_Ed]

Who???

I would vote for Cruz, and that’s it, but I don’t see him beating the witch.

Ed

[PoloSec]

History doesn’t always repeat itself, there is a new dynamic in play, we got a little taste of it 2010, and the appetite for this new dynamic has only grown greater...The Tea Party!

IMO!

[Cyber Liberty]

Romney doesn’t know how to build political coalitions, only how to tear them down for his own personal gain. Like Fatso. Like The (yet another) Other Bush. Like Rubio. Huckleberry....etc.

The GOPe will blow the ‘14 election before they even get a chance to blow the ‘16 election.

[BfloGuy]

Good. It’s nobody’s “turn,”

You're right. Good point. Something to pin our hopes on, I think.

[Cyber Liberty]

Gives me hope, so I’m happy to share it with you.

[ansel12]

Those other politicians are pretty successful although they are GOPe, Romney has always been a terrible politician, and far to the left of all of those mentioned.

Romney has only been a part time republican, he left the party during the Reagan years and became a democrat supporter and fundraiser and voter.

How Romney has managed to so dominate the republican party while only having won a single election in his life, and failing as that one term office holder, and having left the party and opposed the party and not accruing any baggage from it, or even a mention, is a true mystery.

[WilliamRobert]

2016
I wouldn’t vote for any of those people, were do they get these list, there isn’t one conservative on it. No wonder they lose, they are all losers.

[Cyber Liberty]

I've been nursing a theory: GOPe doesn't want to win leadership. They're perfectly happy maintaining the perks of their offices, and screw the people who trusted them. They've been bribed, and they went cheap.

[Boogieman]

First we have to beat the RINO machine before we can worry about beating Hillary, because we KNOW whoever they nominate won’t be able to do it. They’ll just give us another wet noodle willing to bow and scrape before her and hand her the presidency.

I think we need some conservative convention or caucus type deal before the Republican primaries even start, so that we have one candidate vetted that we all agree to back. Otherwise, we end up with multiple conservatives fighting each other, splitting the vote, and letting the moderate walk away with the prize.

[ansel12]

They do seem to a party of people who just want to work in the industry, people looking for long careers, without any driving political end in mind.

[Cyber Liberty]

They went cheaply. Sold us out for pennies on the dollar.

[NormsRevenge]

Perhaps it is a good thing that political parties take a good look at their accomplishments or lack thereof and then maybe take pause, reflect calmly and refine their thoughts and place their futures&fortunes on an agenda that works for everyone, not against half of us or to only benefit major donors and cronies.

Perhaps not too, altho it seems the Dems stepped up their game while the GoP struggled to get thru the ticket stiles much less find the playing court.

It’s time for a new generation of leadership and leaders across the board .. but don’t hold your breath.

When a FRee press does not exist ..

What difference does it make anyway?

[Impy]

Liz Warren, electable only in MA, would have lost to Brown in a midterm election.

Cory Booker, electable only in NJ, would have lost to be NJ RINO with the full support of the state party.

Both are clowns with a zero% chance of being elected President. It’s mystifying why either is being touted. Yeah ok it’s because she’s a “woman” and he’s Black, but still, come on.

[AuH2ORepublican]

You are gravely underestimating Cory Booker. He is smarter than Obama, a better orator than Obama, and much likelier than Obama to adopt conservative positions on some issues (school choice for one). If Obama can be elected president, Cory Booker certainly can.

As for the fact that Booker might have lost to a RINO supported by the RNC, that is true, particularly in a special election at a time in which Democrats were unpopular thanks to Obamacare and other issues. But it is also true that Obama would have lost the 2004 Senate election had Combine-backed Republucan been the GOP nominee; heck, he probably would have lost against Jack Ryan, which is why Obama’s goons got that California judge to release illegally the sealed records of Ryan’s divorce.

Obama won two presidential elections, despite his gaping flaws. We can’t turn into Vizzini, repeating the word “unelectable” until someone points out, after the next election, that that word that we kerp using doesn’t mean what we think it means.