Better, his odds don’t account for closer airfields. I concur with his fuel statement, just not how long the plane would have flown at reduced altitude.
The map based on the engine data ‘ping’ is very curious...
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp&_r=1
>>The map based on the engine data ‘ping’ is very curious...<<
I saw an explanation for this somewhere that made sense. The ping to the satellite can be used to tell the distance to the airline but not the direction. I’d guess it has to do with the time elapsed somehow, but I’m not sure of that. The report said that they could then use the distance of the satellite from the earth and calculate the angle from the satellite to the airline. That would be simple geometry once you know the two distances, but all you would know is the distance from the satellite which is why you see the two bands displayed. The plane was somewhere along the bands in either direction from its last known location at the last ping.
The bands are the circumference of the circle with the satellite at its center, and the length of the bands are determined by how far the plane could have flown during the time from its last known location as determined by radar.
Actually, they also have more information from those pings, but I haven’t seen a discussion of it. Each ping up until the last would have also generated similar bands, although shorter because the plane wouldn’t have gone as far yet. If the plane was flying toward the satellite, the band for the next ping would be closer to the satellite, and vice versa, so it would be possible to deduce the some information about the direction of the plane between each ping, although not whether it was going left or right relative to the satellite’s position, just whether it was moving toward or away from it.
It appears to be a coincidence that the published bands cross over the last known location of the plane, by the way. Had the plane continued toward China, for example, the bands would be much further out from the satellite’s location.
I
Interesting map - thanks
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/17/world/asia/malaysia-airlines-flight.html?hp&_r=1
The “inexperienced pilot” theory doesn’t make much sense, I’m afraid.
I’m not a pilot, and I’m perfectly well aware that jets burn a lot more fuel at lower altitudes. Seems unlikely someone could become familiar enough with the plane to be able to fly it, yet be unaware of the range issue.