[fso301]

So if it did a belly landing, unlike AF flight 447, at least one would have been activated.

In that case, the pilot would know that and nosedive to get the plane under water before the ELT(s) could activate.

We haven’t seen any distress beacons nor crash debris.

I would think nosediving in the southern Indian Ocean or northern Antarctic Ocean would explain that.

[Jack Hydrazine]

Why would he nosedive it into the ocean? He doesn’t want the aircraft to be found?

Read up on EgyptAir flight 990 that was nosedived into the ocean. They found debris.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EgyptAir_Flight_990

[holden]

I would think you couldn't get under the ocean surface fast enough before the ELT would send out a couple of bleeps that would be satellite-received. Normally, automation would weed out such "tests" before SAR notices go out, but the powers-that-be would have that info to review, nonetheless.

Or are my thoughts even more "all wet" than I think?

HF