So I’m starting to see pro-Russia and pro-Ukraine propaganda, including stuff from both sides assuring us that the other side is neo-Nazi.
I can think of good arguments for Russia to seize Crimea and for that matter, western Ukraine. And if they go that far, why stop there?
And I can’t think of any reason for us to get involved directly.
There is a lot of talk about international law and treaties and all the rest, and we are realizing that none of it matters if you aren’t prepared for the “what if”... What if they are prepared to shed blood and you aren’t.
Ukrainians have to decide and quickly how much their territory and sovereignty is worth to them. Are they prepared to shed blood for it?
I am sure that, as other articles have assured us, the Ukrainian military is no match for the Russians, at least on paper. But it really comes down to a willingness to fight. If they are willing to fight, they can turn it around albeit at a considerable cost. If they are not, its over already. They will have to settle for independence in a smaller territory, or settle for being a Russian province.
I don’t think Putin wants the burden of Ukraine’s terrible economy.
“Now, Gazprom is considering raising prices on March 1 unless Ukraine pays $1.55 billion for owed fuel costs”
IMO, I think the Ukraine will fight IF they can get some support. They have the manpower to create huge problems for Russia. They are certainly not unaccustomed to heavy loss of life, historically speaking.* But they don’t have the weapons.
* http://www.infoukes.com/history/ww2/page-29.html
That said, the Ukraine was foolish to not at least trade each nuke they gave up back in the ‘90’s for an equivalent monetary cost non-nuke weapon of modern (at the time) manufacture. They’d be armed to the teeth.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Ukraine
As for why get involved? Because if we don’t honor our security guarantees to the Ukraine, we have indeed shown such paper to be useless, and guaranteed nuclear proliferation in the next several years that will make Iran seem like a trifle. Putin might be well advised to take all of the Ukraine now, because otherwise, the Ukraine will join Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea, and quite possibly several other nations with nukes. There is no way we can stop it.