[entropy12]

All depends on the meaning of word “UNemployment”....BJC

Yes, the number is a joke. They count only those receiving unemployment and those actively seeking jobs by registering with state agencies. On top of that they superimpose birth/death data to further massage the number.

The only correct number can be found by looking at how many are paying social security tax, because every single soul who has a job or a business must pay that tax. But that would be too much transparency and too much embarrassment so the gov’t won’t tell us.

[SeekAndFind]

RE: On top of that they superimpose birth/death data to further massage the number.

Can you or someone please enlighten me on what this birth/death data is? I keep reading about it but don’t understand what it means... I know it is an estimate, but what is it an estimate of and why can’t we count on it?

Thanks.

[1rudeboy]

They count only those receiving unemployment and those actively seeking jobs by registering with state agencies.

Seriously, where did you learn the above? I'd like to have the entire Economics department at George Mason contact them directly. Sheesh.

[Mad Dawgg]

"They count only those receiving unemployment and those actively seeking jobs by registering with state agencies."

No, that is only part of the way they go about it. They also survey businesses.

[khelus]

Re:All depends on the meaning of word “UNemployment”....BJC

Yes, the number is a joke. They count only those receiving unemployment and those actively seeking jobs by registering with state agencies. On top of that they superimpose birth/death data to further massage the number.

The only correct number can be found by looking at how many are paying social security tax, because every single soul who has a job or a business must pay that tax. But that would be too much transparency and too much embarrassment so the gov’t won’t tell us.

Actually the BLS has made it more complicated than that.

There are two surveys: one of households and one of businesses.

The household survey produces the unemployment rate. It does not count those collecting unemployment each month nor those registered as looking for a job.

The number collecting umemployment is used however once a year for an 'annual benchmark adjustment'.

The main manipulation of the household data is through seasonal adjustment and manipulation of which bucket you are placed. A great way to suppress the unemployment rate is to remove more and more people out of the civilian labor force.

The payroll survey produces the number of jobs created. The raw data is run through the Birth and Death model and seasonal adjustment to created the 'headline' number of jobs created.