Posted on 07/17/2013 5:21:08 AM PDT by thackney
On July 3, the administrators of The Oil Drum, a blog/discussion forum site dedicated to and frequented by those who advocate for “Peak Oil” theory, announced the site would close at the end of July, marking an end to an eight-year existence. During that period of time, “Peak Oil” theory has basically gone the way of the California Condor, from widespread existence and acceptance in the oil and gas environment to near extinction as its environment has dramatically shifted thanks to the discovery of and ability to access massive oil shale reservoirs not just in the United States, but all over the world.
Eight years ago, some of the leading thinkers in and around the oil and gas industry, like the late Matt Simmons, were proponents of this theory, which advocates the belief that worldwide oil production has reached or has very nearly reached its peak overall production, and the world faces a long period of decline of the resource. Today, given the new abundance of shale oil, almost no real industry thought leaders are Peak Oil proponents, and the theory is now mainly advocated by self-promoting opportunists looking to gain free media attention by being contrarians to prevailing belief, and environmental activists who cobble together misleading data and fright scenarios to justify costly policies that throw billions of public dollars at renewable energy schemes.
At his Carpe Diem blog on Tuesday morning, Dr. Mark J. Perry posted a great chart illustrating the levels of interest from 2005 through today in the topics of “peak oil” vs. “fracking” using the Google GOOG -0.55% Trends tool. Anyone wondering why the administrators of The Oil Drum are unable to sustain a critical mass of interest in discussions and news around Peak Oil theory need only view this chart to get the picture.
(Excerpt) Read more at forbes.com ...
The main reason why Peak Oil theorists always turn out to be wrong is that they by and large appear to be unable to grasp the huge role advancing technology plays in allowing the industry to discover new oil resources previously unknown, to access known resources that were previously thought to be unexploitable, and to extract an ever-increasing percentage of oil long known to be in place via secondary and tertiary recovery techniques.
well said....and that applies across the board to all commodities, as data on supply limits is conveyed via the price....voila....a replacement is found, or a new way to get the commodity is found...something happens, and the crisis ends.
The best “cure” for high prices is high prices.
I agree and it is caused by one world: technology.
I attended oil conferences where I heard the hustler Matthew Simmons http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Matthew_Simmonsdeliver this crock for years, arguing doom and gloom.
See his idiotic comments on the Deepwater Horizon.
All done to line his pocketbook, just like an Algore greenie.
Our world is blessed with an incredible source of energy in the form of hydrocarbons which occur naturally and are ours for the taking.
It will be many, many generations before we even have to think of these being exhausted.
Thank you, God.
Peak Oil also ignored the fact that, although oil is lighter than the surrounding liquids, and rises, it is found up to five miles down. That’s well below any fossils ever laid down. This strongly implies that oil is produced, not be fossils, but by something else. The hot biosphere has been proposed as an ecology living deep in the Earth’s crusts. If that’s so, then the supply of oil will last as long as the Earth does.
Bring back the 426 Hemi! Yeah!
The EPA in their corruption has decided to increase the amount of Alcohol in gas to reduce oil consumption.
“That’s well below any fossils ever laid down”
The Anadarko Basin have sediments the reach 8 miles in depth. Those sediments were laid down on what was a sea bed. Most oil is not formed by dinasours but by microscope life in the sea that died a was covered by sediment over millions of years.
Bingo.
Peak Oil Theory will never, Never, NEVER die. Just like socialism and AGW Theory will never die. Even though the fundamental concepts are flawed, they appeal to the mindset of someone who already has their mind made up regardless of the facts involved.
Because it caters to the mindsets “Nobody should have more than anyone else, socialism is fairest way to reach equality” and “Fossil fuels are bad, there is a limited amount in the ground, so we will use it all up and run out soon” cater to people who put beliefs before facts.
Sigh. They have been preaching socialism a lot longer than Peak Oil, but it is the same mindset.
then the supply of oil will last as long as the Earth does.
Because it isn’t true. Heat and Pressure break down heavy crude oil molecules into smaller, simpler molecules like Natural Gas, octane, etc.
We do it every day in our refineries. The physics doesn’t reverse because it is underground.
I enjoy participating in Freeper Homer_J_Simpson’s daily thread “Real Time Plus 70 Years.” Here’s a link to his post of the New York Times from June 26, 1943:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3035794/posts
You have to scroll down some to get to it, but yes, there is a “Peak Oil” article. Secretary of the Navy Frank Knox testifies to Congress that our oil reserves will run out in 14-20 years, and that it is unlikely to discover new reserves.
It was interesting that he noted that there were known reserves of shale oil, so we knew there that source of oil as early as 1943. But I’m guessing he had no idea how much, and of course the technology to extract it was not yet developed.
False, it is only found in Sedimentary Rock laid down from the surface. It is always found with microscopic fossils and other biotic material.
There is not any commercial oil production outside of sedimentary basins.
That may sound too deep for you. But oil if found from ancient sea floors. 1 inch compacted sediment per thousand years for 400 million years is 6.3 miles deep.
Opposing "Peak Oil" has nothing to do with accepting abiogenic oil.
All of the shale oil obtained by fracking is "fossil fuel" and it was all discovered by people that believe oil comes from fossil marine and lacustrine plankton.
Because of subduction processes, it's absolutely NOT true that there are no fossils 5 miles down; fossil-bearing layers go far deeper than that.
While the production method of crude oil in the earth hasn’t stopped, it doesn’t produce oil anywhere near as fast as we use it today.
If the earth was producing crude oil at the rate we use it today, the crude oil could cover the whole earth six miles deep.
There will be a day of peak oil. It won’t mean there isn’t any oil left at that point. And I don’t believe we are near it at this time.
We will start producing less oil as we get other more economical choices. The stone age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.
Peak oil should have never been promoted as Peak Oil, but Instead it should have been Peak Easy and Cheap oil. And we have reached that peak. Maybe the technology will improve to bring the costs down, but the days of cheap oil are gone for now.
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