You're right, I posted continuing claims and the quote mentioned initial claims, but personally I don't see that much of an improvement. I mean, we're still worse off than we were during the financial crisis. It's also interesting to note that last week claims numbers (both initial and continuing) were revised downward.
I don’t have all the numbers in front of me now but the 4WMA for initial claims are well below the average for the last 50 years. Most economists use “below 400,000” as positive for job growth and we are significantly below that threshold. We are significantly below the peak of close to 650,000 and also below the peaks (highest initial claims) of the last five cycles.
There is a disconnect with job growth though. Job growth continues to be fairly weak (average about 157,000 NFP improvement per month the last two years.) ill try and run those charts tomorrow.
The other issue is that job growth is completely in line with 1-2% GDP growth which is the environment we are in. Very weak recovery by any standard. There is a recovery though. That’s undeniable.