Looks like a regular cycle. We are approaching the next minimum and spike.
Could be. The trough for each of the last three cycles has been 4WMA claims of less than 300K (average trough of around 285,000). We are at 336,750 right now. The average sequential weekly decline over the last year has been about 800 so to get to below 300,000 we have about 46 weeks and about 65 weeks to get to the trough of the last 3 cycles.