but the past few years shows that these things are not easy to predict in todays world economy.
This is what I’ve come to think, as well. Linear extrapolations in either direction are usually wrong. Most historical graphs are more like roller coasters than hockey sticks. There is rarely any appreciation for Black Swans, some of which can be positive.
Hard times may be here and they may get worse. But total collapse? The temperate center of a continent reduced to irrelevancy within even a decade’s time? I try very hard to ignore normalcy bias and to think outside most boxes, but that just seems too extreme.
In no particular order and w/o re-reading the article:
A _few_ farmers? Most folks living outside the urban centers (and some who have relocated within them) know how to produce food and energy from a variety of sources by diverse means.
Lack of technical expertise in the US? It seems to me that not only is there a sufficiency, but it is distributed throughout the country. There are now IT centers and energy-producers in places outside of Silicon Valley and Texas/Louisiana.
As I age, I am amazed that the doom predictors keep telling folks to buy arable land with wood lots and pasture. Ever done this sort of work? It is very labor intensive and energy intensive. If you really believe it is all going to end within a lifetime, what will those aged over 60 do with this land? Will you plow by hand in a season such as this one, with a delayed planting? How will you feed and house the work animals, assuming you have bred and trained them and their handlers? If you had to begin to cut firewood now, without chain saws and winches and transport, it would not be ready to burn for 18 months. Those beef on pasture take time to mature, as well and need more than the grass available in a short season. How much wood does it take to make how much charcoal in how much time with how many people?
Is anyone conducting commerce in silver? I know that when I see a few pre-1964 coins selling for $20 or more (and it was worse a few months ago when $1.50 in coins was going for over $40), I just can’t quite bring myself to purchase them. I know people who bought $1000 face value in pre-1964 silver over 40 years ago. It sits in their attic and even though it has appreciated, the owners don’t even count it in their net worth.
Mockton is an excellent thinker and I see how he reaches his conclusions, but let’s just take his example of Britain.
They may be in dire straits, but they exist. They are not in a shambles, exactly. They are not grubbing in the rain with sticks and oxen to produce some Middle Ages harvest of barley. With fewer resources than the US, with a longer history of socialism, with a large proportion of non-productive natives and immigrants and with a climate that seems as variable as ours, they are still a First World nation, even though their demise has been foretold for my entire life. And I remember when the pound was worth $50 USD.
The scenario of an indigenous populace of plodding slaves ruled by invading despots and treasonous natives never ends well for the rulers. We have put our resources off-limits for extraction, but they are still there. So, we sell them to China. They then have to revive the dormant supporting infrastructure, manage the slave labor pool and, if they import their own labor, they need to mount security sufficient to protect the labor, the infrastructure and the extractives and that doesn’t begin to include the transportation and distribution issues. Seems it might be a tad more efficient to work for stability.
People were moaning about the debt and predicting collapse when I was in high school in the 1950s. In the 1970s, people migrated to the country to return to the land before the Collapse and the new Ice Age. That land is now worth 10x what it was back then and it is for sale and there are American buyers. In the 80s, the Japanese were going to own America. Instead, they lost their collective shirt. I look around my little portion of the US and I do not see a dispirited gaggle. I see commerce, innovation, families. Even where there have been concerted efforts to make people dependent, there is an underground economy. People find a way. Not everyone is ignorant and deluded. Many have weighed the odds and decided that they and this nation will endure and live their lives accordingly.
Some preparation for hard times is prudent. Living in fear and trepidation is debilitating. A lot of things *could* happen. That does not mean it is inevitable.
Just my devalued 2 cents. I think the death of the United States is highly exaggerated.
Clinton was terrified of a repeat og 1970s killing his economy so he started with deficit reduction 1993.
In the 1990s and more-so 2000s we had a housing bubble driving phony economy gains and prices rising, but then it crashing brought us deflation as did the EU problems and as does trade.
So the government/Central bank fights deflation with inflation, not a pretty picture for sure.
Rather than these endless apocalyptic scenarios I come to believe that we will never have what we considered in the past a normal recovery.
If real employment was normal we would have inflation which would kill it.