We’re seeing the same dynamic here in Virginia. Since 1964, Virginia was a reliable pro-Republican state at the national level, governors notwithstanding. Then, immigrants started rolling in the northern part of the state back in the 1990s. You can travel parts of Falls Church and be convinced you’re not even in America anymore.
Additionally, property developments and suburban sprawl up there attracted much of the government worker base from the DC area, Maryland, and as far away as Pennsylvania. The big warning signs we saw came in 2004, when Bush trailed throughout most of election night until he finally pulled ahead when Richmond County and Hampton Roads tabulated their vote totals. The first big bombshell came in 2006, when George Allen was upended by Jim Webb in his first try for reelection. While, we know about the impact from the “macaca” incident, the fact was a single word could sway the relatively small number of voters needed to tip a vitally important election.
The 2009 (gubernatorial) and 2010 (Congressional) elections gave some hope that a red-state turnaround was in the offing, but the results of 2012 put that notion to rest. GOPers still do somewhat well Hampton Roads, but the numbers are narrowing, and barring miracles, it’s gotten nearly impossible to overcome the dems’ totals in Fairfax County, the beltway region, Norfolk and Newport News. This was clearly evidenced by the state’s 13 EVs going to Obama.
Like the states you mentioned, Virginia is looking particularly troubling. The 2014 elections are going to draw in the supporters of that pathetic sock puppet Mark Warner, so the pro-GOP tilt may not be pronounced at all.
Yes, I know a lot what you are saying about VA. My grandparents (RIP) used to live there in northern VA and I am very familiar with your state. It is quite true, VA no longer even seems like a southern state anymore. You are lucky though to have a pro-business state government. Some say your governor has now become a RINO-—but compared to what I’m stuck with in CA he looks VERY good. Remember I got Gov. Moonbeam and I’m also stuck with Boxer, Feinstein, Pelousy and Maxine. Yes, VA has turned purple, some might even say blue after voting for Obama twice. I am keeping a close eye on your gubernatorial election this yers-—Love Cuccinnelli ( I probably mispelled his name). I could care less what happens in NJ this year.