The 17th Amendment is going to make it difficult to take control of the Senate...best done in an ‘off year’ when people aren’t being driven to the polls by a presidential race.
I think the Senate and presidency are losers until after we have strong control of the House and can frame the national discussions.
Though an exceptionally good conservative politician may do well, in general the national media has it’s way in those elections now.
And, yes, that’s because of the 17th amendment.