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The Lesson of 2004
The Weekly Standard ^ | 11/10/2012 | Jonathan Last

Posted on 11/10/2012 4:01:50 PM PST by Reagan‹berAlles

In many respects, the 2012 election played out as a close cousin of the 2004 contest. A vulnerable incumbent president in a bad political environment faced a weak challenger who lacked a core ideology and who articulated no clear vision for the country. In both campaigns the challenger chose to present himself as a default choice, rather than an insurgent. In both campaigns the president pursued a base-turnout strategy. And in both years the president won, by a margin of victory just around 2.4 percentage points.


TOPICS: Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
The existential despair (is) familiar because liberals and Democrats said the same sorts of things immediately following the 2004 vote. Like Mitt Romney’s, John Kerry’s final polls before Election Day—not to mention the early exit polls on the day itself—suggested he had a reasonable chance of victory. So when defeat came, Democrats were both discouraged and shocked. And their first reaction was to conclude that America had changed in a fundamental way.
1 posted on 11/10/2012 4:01:54 PM PST by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

Things can change quickly...and they will.


2 posted on 11/10/2012 4:03:49 PM PST by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

The lesson of 2012 that needs to be remembered for 2016 is do not run a loser liberal RINO for the presidency!! Ever again!!

No more Doles. No more Bush’s. No more McCains. No more ROMNEYS!!

To hell with the masterminds and central planners of the good ol’ boys GOP-e club. Support your local grassroots conservative tea party!!


3 posted on 11/10/2012 4:07:26 PM PST by Jim Robinson (Resistance to tyrants is obedience to God!!)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles
Things can change quickly...and they will.

I wouldn't assume so based on what happened subsequent to 2004. Rather, I would look at the "fundamentals" as so many analysts told us leading up to the last election.

For example, I see absolutely no indication that the GOP establishment and leadership (e.g., Boehner) has any intention to use principles to guide their actions.

And, I won't even discuss the impact of the collaborating media (relative to 2004).

4 posted on 11/10/2012 4:10:52 PM PST by wolf24
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

The difference is Kerry came within one state and 120,000 votes of victory.


5 posted on 11/10/2012 4:40:04 PM PST by Norman Bates
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

I strongly disagree with the premise that GWB lacked a core ideology and failed to present a vision for the future. He didn’t deliver in his second term, but that isn’t the point of this article.

GWB also won bigger over Kerry than Obama vs Romney.

GWB was not Carter or worse in his first term the way Obama was.

The 2012 and 2004 races were completely different.


6 posted on 11/10/2012 4:45:19 PM PST by sockhead (Socialism: trickle up poverty.)
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

GWB won by only 2.4 percentage points?? I have to look this up. I thought he did a lot better than that.


7 posted on 11/10/2012 4:47:31 PM PST by sockhead (Socialism: trickle up poverty.)
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To: sockhead

Don’t be a pain...You misread the article.

The author was referring to Kerry when he said “lacking a core ideology”. It couldn’t have been more clear.


8 posted on 11/10/2012 7:06:18 PM PST by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: sockhead

Also, Bush won by 2.45%. He won 286 EVs.

As much as I hate Obama...right now, with some votes still being counted, he is winning by 2.65% and he has 332 EVs.


9 posted on 11/10/2012 7:20:19 PM PST by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: sockhead

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/


10 posted on 11/10/2012 7:21:01 PM PST by Reagan‹berAlles
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To: Reagan√úberAlles

Didn’t mean to be a pain...I did misread. My apologies. I need to slow down. Obamacare will dispense with me soon since I am in the “too old to waste medicine on” age group.

Thanks for the stats on the elections. I thought GWB had done better.


11 posted on 11/10/2012 8:36:45 PM PST by sockhead (Socialism: trickle up poverty.)
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