Massive disconnect? Not really. EVERY poll aggregator including Nate Silver, Real Clear Polititcs, Electoral-Vote, TPM polltracker, and just the state level polls themselves showed a clear Obama victory. MEANWHILE, Dean Chambers of unskewed polls...a guy with zero expertise in polling or statistics...had Romney. Karl Rove, the head of Romney’s biggest superpac, had Romney...but only because he gave states to R that his own map showed slightly favored Obama.
The most favorable Romney pollster, Ras, had it a tossup.
Face it...the “Math” was on their side. Dick Morris and George Will were on ours. We should have seen it coming. A viote fraud claim doesnt make too much sense when the outcome aligned perfectly with what was predicted by dozens of pollsters, poll aggregators, and the exit polls themselves.
See #29. I aligned with the vote totals, too. There really isn’t anything remarkable in 60.2 versus 57.5 millions. That’s around a 3 million vote difference. That’s only 5 more Obama voters per 100 republicans.
It would make more sense to be saying that no votes were added to Obama but that Romney votes weren’t counted.
Sorry, but no. The state level polling in the final week was actually favouring Romney in the swing states. Most of the professional polling houses had Romney statistically tied or slightly ahead in iowa, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida, Colorado, etc.
Frankly, I’m still not sure where people are getting this idea that “the state level polling” had Obama ahead. It did not. MSM state level polling had it ahead - using a partisan turnout model that was grossly unrealistic, and in fact, is STILL grossly unrealistic when you consider the actual results. A D+7 - D +11 turnout would have safely handed the House back to the Dems, as well as giving Obama a lot more than a 2% PV win, while losing a couple of states that he won last time.
No - the math is NOT working out. Or else, I guess we just accept that polling houses like Gallup and Rasmussen, with decades long track records of good accuracy, suddenly have stopped being able to do basic statistics.